Trump’s Approval Rating Hits New Low Ahead of 2026 Midterms
Washington D.C., Tuesday, 23 June 2026.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating has plummeted to 30%—the lowest of his presidency—with disapproval soaring to 66%, signaling deep voter dissatisfaction. Economic concerns and geopolitical tensions are driving the decline, raising alarms for Republican candidates in November. Even among GOP voters, support is slipping, while independents overwhelmingly disapprove. Could this be a turning point for the 2026 elections?
A Historic Low in Presidential Approval
President Donald Trump (Republican) has reached a historic low in presidential approval ratings, with the latest American Research Group poll showing only 30% of U.S. adults approving of his performance—the lowest figure recorded across both of his terms in office [1]. This represents a -3.226 percentage point decline from May 2026, when 31% of Americans supported his performance [1]. The disapproval rate has simultaneously surged to 66%, creating a 36-point gap between approval and disapproval [1]. This marks the first time Trump’s approval rating has dipped below 34% since taking office in January 2025, following his 2024 re-election [1][2].
Economic Discontent Drives the Decline
The economic approval rating for President Trump has plummeted to 26%, with a staggering 70% of Americans disapproving of his handling of the economy [1]. This represents a significant decline from summer 2025, when his economic approval stood at 38% [3]. The American Research Group poll reveals deep pessimism about the economic future, with only 7% of Americans believing the economy will improve in the next year, while 75% predict it will worsen [1]. Personal financial situations reflect this gloom, as 69% of U.S. adults describe their financial experiences as ‘bad,’ ‘very bad,’ or ‘terrible’ [1]. The economic discontent appears to be a key driver of the overall approval decline, as midterm elections historically hinge on economic performance [GPT].
Partisan Divide Persists Despite Overall Decline
While Trump’s overall approval has reached new lows, his support among Republican voters remains relatively strong, though showing signs of erosion. The latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll shows 82% of Republicans still approve of Trump’s performance [2], but the American Research Group poll indicates this support has slipped to 67%, with 31% of Republicans now disapproving [1]. The most dramatic shift has occurred among independent voters, where only 25% approve of Trump’s performance while 69% disapprove [1]. This represents a significant challenge for Republican candidates in the upcoming midterm elections, as independent voters often determine election outcomes in swing states [GPT].
International Confidence Collapses
President Trump’s approval rating has reached alarmingly low levels internationally, with only 23% of people across 36 countries expressing confidence in his leadership [4]. This represents a significant decline from the 37% confidence rating during his first term [4]. The Pew Research Center survey reveals that 50% of international respondents view the U.S. as an unreliable partner, with particularly sharp declines in traditional allies: confidence dropped from 83% to 31% in Sweden, 83% to 35% in Canada, and 62% to 27% in France since the Biden administration [4]. Trump’s highest international approval rating comes from the Philippines at 68%, while his lowest is in the West Bank/East Jerusalem at just 4% [4]. The international perception of U.S. reliability has become a growing concern among business leaders and investors, potentially impacting foreign direct investment and trade relations [GPT].
Midterm Election Implications
The timing of Trump’s approval rating collapse presents significant challenges for Republican candidates in the November 2026 midterm elections. Historical data shows a strong correlation between presidential approval ratings and midterm election outcomes, with presidents below 40% approval typically seeing their party lose significant congressional seats [GPT]. The current 30% approval rating puts Trump in particularly precarious territory, approaching the record low of 22% set by President Harry S. Truman in 1952 [1][2]. Republican strategists are particularly concerned about the erosion of support among suburban voters and independents, key demographics that helped secure Trump’s 2024 re-election [GPT]. The White House has responded to the polling data by emphasizing policy achievements, including two recent executive orders on quantum computing signed on June 22, 2026 [3]. White House spokesman Davis Ingle stated, ‘The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected him’ [3].
Polling Methodology and Reliability
The American Research Group poll that recorded Trump’s historic low was conducted from June 16 to June 20, 2026, among 1,100 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points [1]. This polling organization meets the reliability criteria for The New York Times polling aggregator and has conducted national polls since 1985 [1]. Other recent polls show some variation in Trump’s approval rating: CBS News/YouGov recorded 38% approval, NPR/PBS News/Marist showed 36%, and Quinnipiac University reported 34% [1][2]. The RealClearPolitics average on June 23, 2026, stands at 40.6%, while Ballotpedia reports 41% [2]. These variations reflect different polling methodologies and sample compositions but consistently show Trump’s approval below 42% across all major polling organizations [1][2].