Chip Equipment Leader ASML Raises Forecast as Artificial Intelligence Drives Record Demand

2026-10-14 companies

Veldhoven, Wednesday, 14 October 2026.
ASML reported higher third-quarter profits and raised its 2026 sales forecast, warning that surging artificial intelligence demand will cause equipment shortages through 2028 as customers request orders reaching 2030.

Financial Performance and Forecast Adjustments

ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) released its third-quarter financial results on October 14, 2026, reporting net sales of €11.662 billion and net income of €4.960 billion [2][4][5]. While the net profit significantly exceeded analyst expectations of €4.1 billion, the net sales figure of €11.66 billion narrowly missed the consensus estimate of €11.72 billion [2][3]. Despite the slight revenue miss, the company raised its full-year 2026 net sales forecast to a range of €44 billion to €45 billion, marking the third upward revision for the year [3][5]. This adjusted outlook represents a substantial increase from the prior guidance range of €43 billion to €45 billion, reflecting strengthened demand visibility [3][7]. The company’s gross margin for the quarter reached 57.5%, surpassing the previous guidance range of 55% to 57% [5][7]. Year-over-year sales growth can be contextualized by comparing current figures to the €7.516 billion recorded in the same period last year, representing a growth rate calculated as 55.162 [5][7].

Artificial Intelligence Demand and Capacity Constraints

The primary driver behind ASML’s optimistic outlook is the sustained investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure by major technology clients [2][3]. CEO Christophe Fouquet noted that customers are continuously increasing their short- and medium-term equipment demand forecasts, driven by expectations regarding the scale and duration of AI-related investments [2][5]. Consequently, ASML expects its planned supply capacity for 2027 and 2028 to fall short of customer demand [4][5]. In response, the company is investigating methods to increase 2028 production capacity beyond the previously announced 30% expansion plan [2][7]. Looking further ahead, some customers have expressed interest in placing orders for 2029 and 2030, providing a view into long-term demand stability [2][5]. ASML maintains its forecast that China will account for 20% of its total business, despite broader geopolitical tensions affecting the semiconductor sector [2].

Market Reaction and Shareholder Returns

Following the earnings announcement, U.S.-listed shares of ASML declined 3% in overnight trading, dragging down peers such as Micron, SanDisk, and Intel [3][6]. Despite the stock price dip, retail sentiment remained extremely bullish, with traders focusing on the raised guidance and durable AI demand [3][6]. To return value to shareholders, ASML completed share repurchases totaling approximately €4.1 billion during the third quarter under its 2026–2028 buyback program [4][5]. Additionally, the company declared an interim dividend of €1.88 per ordinary share, payable on November 4, 2026 [4][5]. As of October 13, 2026, the stock had risen 56% year-to-date, highlighting the strong market performance leading into the earnings release [2]. The company ended the quarter with €12.735 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, ensuring a robust balance sheet for future operations [4][5].

Sources

Semiconductors ASML