AI Rally vs. Dot-Com Bubble: Why Tech Valuations Are Nowhere Near 2000 Peaks
New York, Sunday, 31 May 2026.
Despite fears of an AI bubble in May 2026, the NASDAQ trades at half the valuation of the March 2000 dot-com peak, signaling a potentially sustainable economic trend.
Decoding the Valuation Gap
As of late May 2026, the technology sector is experiencing phenomenal growth, prompting inevitable comparisons to the dot-com era [GPT]. However, empirical data reveals a stark contrast in valuations. According to Aggentic AI, the NASDAQ 100 is currently trading at 36.8 times trailing earnings [1]. To reach the historic dot-com peak of roughly 75 times trailing earnings seen in March 2000, the index would require a multiple expansion of 2.038, meaning stock prices would need to double or earnings would need to halve [1]. Furthermore, data from May 29, 2026, indicates the Nasdaq 100 Index’s estimated Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio via the QQQ ETF sits at 33.81 [2]. While this is classified as “Overvalued” compared to its 10-year average of 26.95 and 20-year average of 22.44, it remains a far cry from the speculative zenith of the late 1990s [2].