American Demand for Weight Loss Drugs Prompts Denmark to Double Economic Growth Forecast

2026-09-25 global

Copenhagen, Thursday, 24 September 2026.
Danmarks Nationalbank doubled Denmark’s 2026 economic growth forecast to 4%, driven by soaring U.S. demand for Novo Nordisk’s weight loss medications Wegovy and Ozempic.

Central Bank Revises Growth Projections

On 23 September 2026, Danmarks Nationalbank released a report revising the 2026 GDP growth forecast upward by 2.2 percentage points to 4% [1][2]. This marks a significant shift from the 1.8% forecast previously issued in March 2026 [1][5]. The central bank attributes this 122.222 percent increase in the growth projection primarily to stronger-than-expected performance in the pharmaceutical industry during the first half of 2026 [2][8]. The revision reflects two main factors: actual growth in the first half of the year exceeding expectations and revised GDP estimates providing a stronger basis for 2026 [1][5]. Christian Kettel Thomsen, the Nationalbank Governor, noted that the Danish economy has defied global turmoil, though much of the growth stems from production abroad which utilizes limited Danish labor and capital [2][7].

Pharmaceutical Surge and Economic Disparity

Novo Nordisk’s agreement with the U.S. administration, effective 1 January 2026, expanded access to public health insurance schemes like Medicare and TrumpRx [1][5]. While real exports of goods increased, export prices fell by up to 30% for selected weight-loss and diabetes products due to the pricing agreement [2][7]. Consequently, while GDP grew by 4.6% in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, real Gross National Income (GNI) rose by only 0.2% [6][8]. This divergence highlights that while export volumes surged, the lower prices negatively impacted Denmark’s terms of trade [5][8]. The central bank warns that the contribution of the pharmaceutical sector is expected to moderate after 2026, with GDP growth forecasted to slow to 2.3% in 2027 and 2% in 2028 [4][6].

Market Volatility and Global Headwinds

Despite the economic upgrade, Novo Nordisk shares fell 7.7% on 21 September 2026 following a strategy briefing in London [3]. Investors reacted to the company’s 2030 growth plans, which projected revenue growth merely in line with industry peers, failing to meet higher market expectations [3][8]. The company faces a patent expiration for semaglutide in 2032, necessitating diversification beyond its current GLP-1 dominance [3]. Broader economic headwinds remain, including increased inflation expectations and uncertainty from the Middle East conflict [1][8]. Oil prices are approximately 40% higher than pre-conflict levels, posing risks to the global economic outlook [8]. Nevertheless, the Danish economy is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by high public spending and exports [8].

Sources

Economic Growth Novo Nordisk