Trump’s Independent Voter Support Plummets: A Midterm Election Game-Changer?
Washington D.C., Saturday, 13 June 2026.
A new AP-NORC poll reveals a dramatic 18-point drop in independent voter support for President Trump since 2024, with approval now at just 25%. The decline spans key demographics, including younger voters, Hispanics, and non-college-educated independents—once a cornerstone of his coalition. Economic concerns and shifting priorities are driving the shift, erasing previous education-based divides. With midterms looming, this erosion could reshape electoral outcomes, as independents often decide close races. Business leaders and investors are watching closely, given the group’s influence on economic policy and market stability.
The Collapse of a Key Coalition: Non-College-Educated Independents
President Donald Trump’s second term has been marked by a dramatic erosion of support among independent voters, particularly those without a college degree—a demographic that formed a crucial part of his 2024 electoral coalition. According to an AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research analysis, approval among non-college-educated independents plummeted from approximately 50% during the 2024 election to just 25% by spring 2026, representing a -50 percentage-point decline [1]. This shift is particularly significant given that this group had been a reliable base for Trump, with 48% approving of his performance in the immediate pre-inauguration period of January 2025, a figure that dropped to 31% within his first 100 days in office [1]. The decline has effectively erased the education gap that previously defined independent voter preferences, with both college-educated and non-college-educated independents now holding similarly negative views of the president [1][2].
Hispanic and Black Independents: A Reversal of 2024 Gains
The AP-NORC polling data reveals that Trump’s support among Hispanic independents has also collapsed, falling from 46% favorability during the 2024 election period to approximately 25% by spring 2026 [1]. This -45.652 percentage-point drop is particularly striking given that Hispanic independents were nearly evenly split between Trump and then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election [1]. Similarly, Black independents who had shifted toward Trump in 2024 now show approval ratings in the low teens, with only about 15% expressing support for the president [1]. These declines among minority independents represent a reversal of the modest inroads Trump made with these groups during his first term and 2024 campaign, when he emphasized economic issues and framed himself as a champion of working-class Americans [GPT].
Economic Concerns Drive Disillusionment
The polling data suggests that economic concerns are at the heart of independents’ disillusionment with Trump’s second term. Approximately half of the independents who supported Trump in 2024 cited economic issues—particularly inflation, gas prices, and food costs—as their top concern [1]. Despite White House claims of ‘historic progress’ on economic matters, including jobs and housing affordability, these voters appear unconvinced [3]. The persistence of high inflation more than a year into Trump’s second term, coupled with the economic strain of the ongoing Iran war, has likely contributed to the erosion of support [1]. A senior research associate at NORC, Tafari Torres, noted that ‘Independents are, broadly, the people who are reacting to the events and dropping in their support,’ underscoring the group’s responsiveness to real-world conditions [1].
Polling Consistency and Geographic Spread
The decline in Trump’s support among independents is not an artifact of a single poll or methodological quirk. Multiple national polls conducted between January 2025 and June 2026 show a consistent trend. Civiqs, which uses a rolling tracker with over 110,000 responses, recorded a -14 percentage-point drop in approval among independents, from 44% in January 2025 to 30% in June 2026, with disapproval rising from 49% to 63% [2]. This represents a net approval swing of 28 points. The Economist/YouGov poll found Trump’s net approval among independents at -50, an all-time low for the pollster and a -46 point decline since January 2025 [2]. PRRI’s survey data similarly showed a 10-point drop in favorability among independents, from 35% in March 2025 to 25% in May 2026 [2]. The geographic spread of this decline is also notable, with Civiqs data indicating that Trump is underwater in most U.S. states, not just traditional Democratic strongholds [2].
White House Response and the Road Ahead
The White House has pushed back against the polling data, with spokesperson Davis Ingle asserting that ‘almost 80 million Americans had overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda’ [3]. Ingle further claimed that ‘no president has accomplished more for the American people’ and that Trump had made ‘historic progress not only in America but around the world,’ adding that ‘this is just the beginning’ [3]. However, these statements contrast sharply with the polling trends, which show a clear and sustained decline in support among key voter groups. As the midterms approach, the question remains whether Trump and Republicans can reverse this trend or if independents will deliver a rebuke at the ballot box, potentially reshaping the political landscape for the remainder of Trump’s second term [1][2][3].