United States Formally Concludes Military Presence in Iraq

2026-09-30 global

Baghdad, Wednesday, 30 September 2026.
On September 30, 2026, the United States completed its military withdrawal from Iraq, ending a 12-year counter-ISIS mission and shifting full primary security responsibility to Baghdad.

Operational Conclusion of Inherent Resolve

The final withdrawal of United States forces from Erbil Air Base on September 30, 2026, marks the formal end of Operation Inherent Resolve’s Iraq chapter, concluding a 12-year operational presence [1][3]. Approximately 2,500 troops were withdrawn, finalizing a timeline negotiated during the Biden administration and maintained by the Trump administration to conclude by this date [3][4]. US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed the removal of all American forces and equipment, effectively closing the combat mission that began with the counter-ISIS campaign in 2014 [1][4]. This departure transitions security responsibilities entirely to Iraqi forces, including the Peshmerga and other Kurdistan Region security forces, which CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper stated now possess the capacity to unilaterally manage threats [1].

Strategic Relocation

While combat forces have left Iraq, the Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve has relocated its headquarters to Jordan to continue operations against ISIS in Syria [1][6]. US and Coalition forces stationed across the region remain ready to respond to any ISIS threats that arise, maintaining vigilance to protect the US homeland and strengthen regional security [1]. This shift underscores a move away from a permanent military footprint toward a model focused on intelligence, training, and technical support [2]. The relocation ensures that while the physical presence in Iraq has ended, the strategic oversight of counter-terrorism efforts in the vicinity persists from neighboring territory [6].

Security Implications and Militia Disarmament

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s administration aims to reassert state authority following the withdrawal, designating the period as four “Sovereignty Days” to celebrate national independence [2][8]. The government has committed to disarming all domestic militias, including pro-Iran groups, by June 2027, an extension from an initial September 30, 2026, deadline [2][3]. Prime Minister al-Zaidi emphasized striving to ensure that the state is the ultimate decision-maker in matters of peace and war, with weapons remaining in the hands of constitutional institutions [2]. However, hardline armed groups such as Kata’ib Hezbollah have given no indication they are prepared to surrender their weapons to the state [3].

Disarmament Deadlines

The plan includes a 90-day period of non-aggression between armed groups and US-associated interests following the withdrawal [3]. Both US and Iranian-aligned militias have reportedly provided assurances to refrain from attacks during this transition, though analysts note it will be a difficult series of decisions for the government [2]. Vulnerable minorities, including Christians, Yazidis, and Kurdish communities, face increased exposure to security threats starting October 1, 2026, as US forces withdraw [3]. The Iraqi military currently lacks certain defensive capabilities, such as air-defense systems, which were removed by US forces as part of the withdrawal [2].

Regional Power Dynamics and Energy Security

The withdrawal shifts the balance of power in the region, leaving a battered but increasingly influential Iran at the center of the region’s future [6]. In March 2026, Iraq’s oil output dropped by up to 60 percent due to restricted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz amid regional conflict, highlighting the fragility of energy infrastructure security [2]. Prime Minister al-Zaidi promised an economic “renaissance” at the UNGA, aiming to move relationships with strategic partners from military cooperation to economic and development cooperation [2]. This pivot is critical as Baghdad seeks to navigate risks in the new security landscape while maintaining oil supply lines [2][6].

Kurdish Regional Concerns

Officials in the Kurdish region have expressed concern over the loss of US air-defense capabilities following the departure [2]. Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government Masrour Barzani criticized the withdrawal, stating that being left without appropriate defensive systems is shameful and leaves the region vulnerable to real threats [2]. Iranian-made drones targeted a camp affiliated with Iranian Kurdish opposition groups near Erbil on September 28, 2026, illustrating the ongoing security challenges [3]. There is anxiety that Iraq could be viewed as too close to Iran, potentially affecting future strategic partnerships [2].

Historical Context and Future Outlook

This withdrawal concludes over two decades of US military involvement in Iraq, which began with the invasion in 2003 and resulted in nearly 5,000 American personnel deaths [4][8]. The US previously withdrew in 2011 but returned in 2014 after ISIS seized large territories, including Mosul [2][4]. A veteran columnist noted that while the invasion removed Saddam Hussein’s government within one month, it required over 20 years to pursue the goal of a stable, democratic government [8]. The inscriptions for the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns on the Marine Corps War Memorial currently lack end dates, though refurbishment is ongoing [8].

Long-term Bilateral Relations

Following the withdrawal, the US and Iraq are reverting to the 2008 Strategic Framework and Security Agreement, normalizing the bilateral defense relationship [3][4]. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that building a normal US-Iraq bilateral defense relationship requires a secure environment free from terrorist coercion [3]. Prime Minister al-Zaidi confirmed that Iraqi security agencies have established full control over the country’s security landscape [4]. The focus now shifts to ensuring that the state remains the ultimate decision-maker while managing the influence of foreign-backed militias [2][3].

Sources

Geopolitics Defense policy