Challenger Nithya Raman Takes Sizable Lead in Los Angeles Mayoral Poll
Los Angeles, Thursday, 24 September 2026.
Councilmember Nithya Raman leads Mayor Karen Bass 39% to 28% in a September 2026 poll, boosted by massive youth support and frustration over Bass’s wildfire response.
Polling Data and Voter Sentiment
A significant shift in the Los Angeles mayoral race has been identified by a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, showing City Councilmember Nithya Raman leading incumbent Mayor Karen Bass. Conducted between September 15 and September 20, 2026, the survey of 2,150 likely voters indicates Raman holds 39% support compared to Bass at 28%, with 33% of respondents remaining undecided [1][2][3]. This data represents a substantial change from the June 2, 2026, primary election results, where Bass secured 34% and Raman 29%, setting the stage for the November runoff [1][3]. The margin of error for the poll is ±3 percentage points, suggesting a statistically significant lead for the challenger [1]. Voter dissatisfaction appears to be a primary driver, with Mayor Bass holding a 63% unfavorable rating among likely voters [1][3]. This sentiment is closely linked to the administration’s handling of the January 2025 Palisades fires, an event that resulted in 12 deaths and the destruction of over 4,000 homes [3][4]. According to the data, 56% of likely voters rate the Mayor’s response to the disaster as poor or very poor, creating a substantial political liability heading into the final weeks of the campaign [1][3].
Demographic Divides and Campaign Dynamics
The polling data reveals a stark generational divide that defines the current electoral landscape in Los Angeles. Among voters aged 18 to 29, Raman commands 66% support compared to just 4% for Bass, while the 30 to 39 age bracket shows 64% support for the challenger versus 12% for the incumbent [1][3]. Conversely, Mayor Bass maintains stronger support among voters aged 65 and older, leading this demographic 41% to 21% [1][3]. This polarization suggests distinct policy priorities influencing voter intent, with younger demographics potentially favoring Raman’s positions on housing density and zoning [1]. The campaign dynamics are further complicated by the status of former candidate Spencer Pratt, who secured 26% of the vote in the primary before eliminating himself from the runoff [1]. Among Pratt’s former supporters, 63% remain undecided, while 22% now favor Bass and 16% favor Raman, indicating a critical swing vote segment that both campaigns are actively targeting [1][2]. Mark DiCamillo, Director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, noted that seeing this many undecided voters at this stage is extraordinarily unusual, highlighting the fluidity of the race [1][3].
Economic Implications and Election Timeline
For business leaders and real estate developers, the potential change in administration signals possible adjustments to municipal budget priorities and commercial zoning regulations in the nation’s second-largest city. Raman’s campaign has gained momentum through endorsements from groups such as Unite Here Local 11 and the Democratic Socialists of America, suggesting a focus on labor and housing affordability [2]. The financial stakes are high, with the outcome likely influencing housing density policies and commercial development incentives in Los Angeles. Mail-in ballots for the general election are scheduled to be sent out beginning October 1, 2026, giving voters early access to the ballot [1][3]. The general election is set for November 3, 2026, providing a clear timeline for the conclusion of this political realignment [1][3]. The current lead held by Raman represents an 11-point advantage over the incumbent, calculated as 11 percentage points [1][2][3]. While the poll indicates a strong position for Raman, the high percentage of undecided voters means the race remains competitive until Election Day [1][3].