Recession Signals Flash as Consumer Confidence Sinks to 12-Year Low

New York, Tuesday, 27 January 2026.
In a concerning start to 2026, US consumer confidence has cratered to 84.5, marking its lowest point since May 2014 and surpassing even the sentiment lows of the COVID-19 pandemic. This sharp 9.7-point decline in January highlights a growing rift between resilient GDP figures and the financial reality felt by households. Crucially, the Expectations Index—a forward-looking gauge of income and business conditions—plummeted to 65.1. This metric has now remained below the critical 80-point threshold for a full year, a pattern that historically signals an impending recession. Despite a stable 4.4% unemployment rate, consumer perception of the labor market has soured significantly, with the net assessment of job availability hitting its weakest level since 2016. Driven by persistent inflation, tariff anxieties, and political uncertainty, this data suggests the American consumer is entrenching against a perceived economic contraction.