New Data Reveals Russian Economic Exhaustion as Budget Deficit Spikes

Moscow, Thursday, 26 February 2026.
As of February 2026, Russia’s economy is showing severe signs of structural fatigue after four years of war. The most alarming indicator is the federal budget deficit, which hit 1.7 trillion rubles in January alone—consuming one-third of the entire annual target. While the Central Bank attempts to manage an ‘overheated’ system, the real economy is contracting: vacancies in the high-tech sector have plummeted by 34.5%, and defense costs now devour 40% of public spending. These converging factors suggest the Kremlin’s war economy has reached its fiscal limit, making a recession increasingly probable.