Goldman Sachs Warns: AI Productivity Boom May Sever Link Between Growth and Jobs

New York, Thursday, 15 January 2026.
Goldman Sachs’ Chief Economist Jan Hatzius identifies a critical shift in the US economy as we enter 2026: the traditional correlation between robust GDP growth and a healthy labor market is fracturing. While AI adoption is projected to drive productivity gains of up to 25%, this efficiency is actively decoupling economic expansion from job creation. Unemployment has already risen to 4.4% despite solid output, with youth unemployment spiking to 8.3%. This divergence suggests AI is accelerating the economy’s “speed limit” while simultaneously dampening labor demand, creating a paradox where the economy booms while workers struggle. As productivity trends accelerate, policymakers face the unprecedented challenge of navigating a “jobless growth” phase that could fundamentally alter the social contract.