Ten Low-Probability Events That Could Reshape the Global Economy in 2026

London, Saturday, 20 December 2025.
As the 2025 fiscal year concludes, market analysts have identified ten critical “grey swan” events that could fundamentally alter the global economic landscape in 2026. While the consensus anticipates a stabilizing environment, perhaps under new Federal Reserve leadership, the outliers present the greatest strategic risks. Most notably, analysts flag the potential for a complete elimination of US tariffs following voter frustration over living costs—a sharp reversal from the protectionist trends of mid-2025. Furthermore, with Gold already having reached a staggering $4,355 per ounce, the focus shifts to potential shocks in the Eurozone, where political instability in Germany could trigger a currency crisis against the Swiss Franc. From a theoretical breakthrough in fusion energy to a resurgence in the US Dollar, these high-impact scenarios serve as an essential stress test for policymakers and executives navigating an increasingly fragile geopolitical order.