Natural Gas Futures Stall Below $4 as Record Production Offsets Winter Demand Chill

New York, Wednesday, 31 December 2025.
As 2025 concludes, natural gas markets remain locked in a volatility trap, with futures slipping to $3.94 per MMBtu on December 31, failing to sustain the psychological $4 threshold. Despite a bullish weather outlook—predicting plunging temperatures across the Midwest and Northeast into early January—prices are currently capped by record-breaking domestic production rates of 113.7 bcf/day. The most compelling narrative emerging is the tightening supply cushion; Energy Information Administration data reveals a significant inventory draw of 166 billion cubic feet, pushing stocks below the five-year average for the first time this season. This creates a precarious tug-of-war for investors: while an intensifying winter and robust LNG export demand (reaching 18.9 Bcf/d) support higher valuations, the sheer volume of output continues to dampen upward momentum entering 2026.