Eurasia Group Report Flags Canada as Top Casualty of US Political Turmoil in 2026

New York, Sunday, 11 January 2026.
The Eurasia Group’s 2026 risk assessment delivers a sobering verdict: no country is more vulnerable to the United States’ deepening political instability than Canada. The report argues that the era of reliable cross-border partnership is effectively over, replaced by a volatile landscape where Canada’s economic dependency becomes its greatest weakness. Analysts highlight the emergence of a “Zombie USMCA”—a trade deal neither fully functional nor formally dead—as a primary threat to supply chains during its critical review year. Compounding this economic precarity are heightened geopolitical risks, including potential Russian hybrid aggression in the Arctic and the diplomatic tightrope of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s upcoming pivot to Beijing. For investors, the stability of the North American trading bloc appears to be a historic artifact rather than a current reality.