China's Trade Surplus Hits Record $1.2 Trillion as Exporters Pivot to Emerging Markets

2026-01-14 economy

Beijing, Wednesday, 14 January 2026.
On January 14, 2026, China reported a historic trade surplus of $1.19 trillion for 2025, demonstrating remarkable resilience against geopolitical headwinds. Despite a 20% decline in exports to the United States amid renewed tariffs, Chinese manufacturers successfully pivoted toward alternative markets. Shipments to Africa surged by 25.8%, while exports to ASEAN nations grew by 13.4%, effectively offsetting losses in North America. The data reveals a strategic shift in global trade dynamics fueled by high-tech manufacturing; exports of semiconductors and ships rose by over 26%, while electric vehicle shipments jumped nearly 49%. However, this external success contrasts with internal challenges, as flat import data highlights continuing weakness in domestic demand and the property sector. This divergence suggests China remains the world’s dominant export engine, even as it navigates a decoupling from the U.S. economy.

Record Surplus Driven by Global Diversification

The General Administration of Customs confirmed on Wednesday that China’s trade surplus for the full year of 2025 reached approximately $1.19 trillion [2][7]. This historic figure represents a significant expansion from the previous year, calculated at a growth rate of 19.96 percent over the $992 billion surplus recorded in 2024 [1][3]. The year concluded with unexpected momentum as exports in December rose 6.6% year-on-year [1][5], defying widespread expectations of a slowdown and outpacing the median forecast of 3.1% by economists [5]. This surge underscores the adaptability of China’s manufacturing base, which expanded its total exports by 5.5% throughout 2025 despite an increasingly complex global trade environment [1][7].

Strategic Pivot to Emerging Markets

To mitigate the impact of rising protectionism in the West, Beijing has aggressively diversified its trading partners, pivoting toward the Global South. Shipments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) grew by 13.4% in 2025, while exports to Africa surged by 25.8% [4][7]. This strategic realignment was further evidenced by a 12.8% increase in exports to India and a 7.4% rise in shipments to Latin America [7]. Wang Jun, a vice minister at the customs administration, emphasized that this diversification has significantly enhanced the country’s ability to withstand external risks and maintain stability in its foreign trade development [4][8].

Domestic Demand Remains the Weak Link

While the external export engine is firing on all cylinders, the domestic economy continues to grapple with stagnation. Total imports for 2025 remained flat at 0.0% growth, signaling persistent weakness in internal demand [7]. This lack of appetite was particularly acute in specific sectors; imports of automobiles collapsed by 39.7%, while steel imports fell by 10.7% and lumber by 13.9% [7]. Analysts attribute this sluggishness to a prolonged property downturn and a crackdown on excessive borrowing, which continue to weigh heavily on consumer confidence [1][6].

Economic Outlook for 2026

Looking ahead, the sustainability of this export-driven model faces scrutiny. The government is scheduled to release its full GDP data for 2025 on January 20, 2026, with growth expected to align with the official target of around 5% [2][6]. However, forecasting the year ahead, Gary Ng, a senior economist at Natixis, projects that export growth may moderate to approximately 3% in 2026 [1][6]. Despite this potential slowing, the trade surplus is expected to remain above the $1 trillion threshold, maintaining China’s central—albeit contentious—role in the global economy [6].

Sources

International Trade Macroeconomics