Intel Stock Rallies on AI Optimism Ahead of Thursday Earnings
Santa Clara, Wednesday, 21 January 2026.
Despite projected revenue declines, Intel stock surged over 120% in 2025. Investors await Thursday’s report to validate whether AI advancements can sustain this massive recovery momentum.
Market Braces for Volatility as Financials Face Scrutiny
As market participants position themselves for Intel’s fourth-quarter earnings release after the closing bell on Thursday, January 22, expectations for immediate stock volatility are high [1][2]. Options markets are currently pricing in a significant swing, with traders anticipating a move of approximately 8% to 9% in either direction by the end of the week following the report [1][2]. While the stock has enjoyed a robust rally recently, the fundamental financial targets for the quarter reflect a year-over-year contraction. Wall Street consensus estimates project revenue to come in at $13.40 billion, representing a 6% decrease from the same quarter a year ago [1][2]. Furthermore, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are forecast to drop to $0.08, a decline of roughly 38.5% from the $0.13 reported in the prior-year period [1][2].
Diverging Analyst Perspectives
Despite the forecasted dip in quarterly financials, sentiment among industry analysts has shown signs of a positive shift in the days leading up to the release. Earlier this week, Seaport Global Securities upgraded Intel from Neutral to Buy, assigning a $65 price target based on solid feedback from PC makers regarding the new Panther Lake chips [1]. Similarly, HSBC analyst Frank Lee raised the stock’s rating to Neutral with a $50 target, citing expectations for server shipments to grow between 15% and 20% in fiscal year 2026 [1]. These upgrades join a bullish move from KeyBanc, which upgraded the stock to “buy” around January 14 [2]. This optimism is largely rooted in the belief that demand for Intel’s agentic AI-driven server CPUs and improved foundry traction are gaining momentum [5].
The AI and Foundry Pivot
The backdrop for this earnings report is a dramatic turnaround story that saw Intel stock rise over 123% throughout 2025 [1]. This surge, which includes a rally of more than 30% in the opening weeks of 2026 alone [3], has been fueled by key strategic developments, including a partnership with Nvidia, a significant stake taken by the U.S. government in August 2025, and progress on the company’s 18A chip technology [1][2]. Investors are now looking for concrete evidence that these catalysts are translating into operational success. Key areas of focus for the Thursday call will include updates on the Gaudi 3 AI accelerator roadmap, yield progress on the 18A process, and management’s commentary on gross margin drivers for 2026 [4]. Specifically, the market is keen to see if the company can regain market share in both consumer and enterprise PCs with its Panther Lake product, the first major rollout utilizing the 18A process [1].