Tariffs Push Valentine's Day Spending to Record $29 Billion
Washington, Saturday, 14 February 2026.
Tariffs drive spending to a record $29.1 billion, yet rising costs mask a retail squeeze. With rose prices soaring 16.6%, consumers are paying significantly more for romance this year.
Breaking Down the Bill
While the National Retail Federation (NRF) anticipates that 55% of Americans are celebrating Valentine’s Day today, the financial burden on individual consumers has reached unprecedented levels [1]. The average shopper has budgeted approximately $199.78 for the occasion, contributing to a total projected expenditure of $29.1 billion [1][4]. This spending is distributed across several key categories: $7 billion is expected to be spent on jewelry, $6 billion on special dinners, and $3.1 billion on flowers [4]. Despite candy remaining the most popular gift choice—purchased by 56% of consumers—expenditures on sweets alone are projected to exceed $1 billion [2][4]. However, analysis from the coalition “We Pay the Tariffs” suggests these record figures are artificially inflated by over $3 billion in tariff payments made last year, which have directly raised the shelf prices of these holiday staples [1].
The Price of Protectionism
The floral industry serves as a primary example of how trade policies are impacting consumer wallets this February. Over 80% of cut flowers imported into the United States originate from Colombia and Ecuador, leaving the market highly vulnerable to import duties [1]. Under recent administrative policies, Colombian rose farmers face a newly added 10% tariff, while Ecuadorian roses are subject to a 15% tariff [1]. These costs have been passed down the supply chain; The Century Foundation estimates that the cost of a rose bouquet has increased by an average of 16.6% this year [1]. Similarly, the confectionery sector has seen sharp price hikes, with Lending Tree reporting on February 12, 2026, that the cost of the 39 most popular Valentine’s Day chocolates rose by an average of 11.8% year-over-year [1].
Retailers React to Consumer Caution
Beneath the headline spending numbers lies a shift in retail strategy and consumer sentiment. Data released yesterday by Omnisend reveals a significant contraction in promotional activity, with brands sending only 3,072 Valentine’s-related emails between January 2 and February 11, compared to 6,395 during the same period last year [5]. This represents a steep decline of -51.962 percent in marketing volume, suggesting that retailers are aware of shopper fatigue and are scaling back their efforts [5]. E-commerce experts note that “shoppers aren’t necessarily buying more—they’re paying more,” a dynamic driven by the convergence of inflation, tariffs, and rising shipping costs [5].