Energy Giants Intensified Venezuela Lobbying Ahead of Political Shift
Washington, Wednesday, 21 January 2026.
Government filings reveal firms like Chevron and Shell ramped up Venezuela-focused lobbying throughout 2025, anticipating the geopolitical pivot. Following Maduro’s capture, the sector saw immediate gains, with PBF Energy surging nearly 20 percent.
Strategic Positioning Before the Shift
Recent government filings reveal that the U.S. energy sector was strategically positioning itself for a geopolitical pivot in Venezuela well before the events of early 2026. Throughout 2025, major industry players including Chevron (CVX), Shell (SHEL), PBF Energy (PBF), and Phillips 66 (PSX) registered federal lobbying activity specifically related to Venezuelan oil and gas [1]. While Chevron has maintained a consistent lobbying presence regarding Venezuelan energy and sanctions every quarter for the last decade, the activity from refiners was more time-sensitive; both PBF and Phillips 66 initiated their lobbying efforts shortly after the Trump administration took office [1]. This preemptive engagement suggests the industry anticipated the regulatory overhaul that would follow the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026 [1].
Market Reaction and Executive Sentiment
The financial markets have responded swiftly to the leadership change and the potential reopening of Venezuela’s heavy crude reserves. Since the capture of Maduro on January 3, PBF Energy’s stock price has surged approximately 20 percent, reflecting the refiner’s potential benefit from accessing Venezuelan feedstock [1]. Chevron, which has maintained operations in the country despite sanctions, saw its stock price increase about 11 percent in the month following December 20, 2025 [1]. Corporate leadership has been equally vocal; shortly after the geopolitical shift, Phillips 66 CEO Mark Lashier publicly stated that his company stood to benefit from renewed access to Venezuelan crude [1].
A Push for Unprecedented Investment
Following the leadership transition, the White House has moved aggressively to secure capital for Venezuela’s dilapidated energy sector. On January 9, 2026, President Trump met with nearly twenty oil executives to discuss re-entry strategies, calling for “unprecedented investments” to restore the country’s oil infrastructure [1]. The administration has set a high target, seeking US$100 billion in investment from U.S. companies to revitalize production [2]. This push aligns with the administration’s broader policy to control Venezuela’s oil sales “indefinitely,” a stance reinforced by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who announced plans to sell between 30 and 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil currently in inventory [2][3]. Estimates indicate this liquidation could generate between US$1.65 billion and US$2.75 billion in revenue [3].
Operational Realities vs. Political Ambition
Despite the administration’s ambitious targets, industry veterans remain cautious regarding the timeline for recovery. While optimistic scenarios suggest production could increase by 500,000 barrels per day within 12 to 18 months, current output hovers around 860,000 barrels per day [2][3]. Analysts at Rystad Energy estimate that returning Venezuela to its pre-Chávez production levels of 3 million barrels per day would require over US$180 billion in investment and could take up to 15 years [3]. Furthermore, significant hesitation remains among top executives; ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods has previously labeled the market “uninvestable,” noting that a successful re-entry would require substantial changes to the governance and rule of law that defined the previous era [1][3]. To address these concerns, the interim government has appointed Calixto Ortega, a U.S.-educated central banker, to lead the national investment agency, signaling an attempt to professionalize the interface for foreign capital [4].