latest news in economy
AI and Power Infrastructure Projected to Fuel Global Market Growth in 2026
Boston, Sunday, 21 December 2025.
With top tech firms projecting $520 billion in capital spending, State Street identifies AI and utilities as primary 2026 growth engines, though elevated valuations demand a selective strategy.
Cleveland Fed Updates Long-Term Inflation Outlook as Data Reliability Concerns Persist
Cleveland, Sunday, 21 December 2025.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has released its latest long-term inflation expectations, providing a crucial benchmark as markets grapple with distorted consumer price data. While the 10-year expected inflation rate stands at 2.7%, the 25-year projection remains elevated at 3.1%, signaling persistent long-term cost pressures. This release comes at a pivotal moment; the November 2025 CPI report was marred by significant data collection failures in October, prompting Fed Chair Jerome Powell to warn against over-interpreting the apparent softness in prices. For investors strategizing for 2026, the Cleveland Fed’s multi-decade outlook offers a more stable gauge of inflation risks than recent, methodologically compromised government statistics.
The 'Bull Market Genius' Trap: How Years of Bailouts Distorted Investor Risk Perception
New York, Sunday, 21 December 2025.
Analysis reveals how 15 years of policy support created a “moral hazard,” deluding investors into mistaking market momentum for skill—a trap that even Benjamin Graham fell into.
Ten Low-Probability Events That Could Reshape the Global Economy in 2026
London, Saturday, 20 December 2025.
As the 2025 fiscal year concludes, market analysts have identified ten critical “grey swan” events that could fundamentally alter the global economic landscape in 2026. While the consensus anticipates a stabilizing environment, perhaps under new Federal Reserve leadership, the outliers present the greatest strategic risks. Most notably, analysts flag the potential for a complete elimination of US tariffs following voter frustration over living costs—a sharp reversal from the protectionist trends of mid-2025. Furthermore, with Gold already having reached a staggering $4,355 per ounce, the focus shifts to potential shocks in the Eurozone, where political instability in Germany could trigger a currency crisis against the Swiss Franc. From a theoretical breakthrough in fusion energy to a resurgence in the US Dollar, these high-impact scenarios serve as an essential stress test for policymakers and executives navigating an increasingly fragile geopolitical order.
Indiana Budget Surplus Projected to Nearly Double to $5 Billion by 2027
Indianapolis, Saturday, 20 December 2025.
Indiana’s projected reserves are on track to reach nearly $5 billion by mid-2027. This substantial fiscal upward revision is driven by robust tax revenue growth and a sharp 15% decline in Medicaid enrollment.
California Population Stagnates as Migration Cuts and Wildfires Stifle Growth
Sacramento, Saturday, 20 December 2025.
California’s growth flatlined at 0.05 percent in 2025 as the termination of humanitarian programs slashed international migration by half, exacerbating economic concerns for the coming year.
Bitcoin Signals Bear Market Shift as Buyer Demand Fades
New York, Saturday, 20 December 2025.
CryptoQuant analysis warns Bitcoin has entered a bear market after plummeting 30% from its $126,000 October peak. Institutional buyer exhaustion and a looming $23 billion options expiry suggest further downside.