latest news in economy
Ten Low-Probability Events That Could Reshape the Global Economy in 2026
London, Saturday, 20 December 2025.
As the 2025 fiscal year concludes, market analysts have identified ten critical “grey swan” events that could fundamentally alter the global economic landscape in 2026. While the consensus anticipates a stabilizing environment, perhaps under new Federal Reserve leadership, the outliers present the greatest strategic risks. Most notably, analysts flag the potential for a complete elimination of US tariffs following voter frustration over living costs—a sharp reversal from the protectionist trends of mid-2025. Furthermore, with Gold already having reached a staggering $4,355 per ounce, the focus shifts to potential shocks in the Eurozone, where political instability in Germany could trigger a currency crisis against the Swiss Franc. From a theoretical breakthrough in fusion energy to a resurgence in the US Dollar, these high-impact scenarios serve as an essential stress test for policymakers and executives navigating an increasingly fragile geopolitical order.
Indiana Budget Surplus Projected to Nearly Double to $5 Billion by 2027
Indianapolis, Saturday, 20 December 2025.
Indiana’s projected reserves are on track to reach nearly $5 billion by mid-2027. This substantial fiscal upward revision is driven by robust tax revenue growth and a sharp 15% decline in Medicaid enrollment.
California Population Stagnates as Migration Cuts and Wildfires Stifle Growth
Sacramento, Saturday, 20 December 2025.
California’s growth flatlined at 0.05 percent in 2025 as the termination of humanitarian programs slashed international migration by half, exacerbating economic concerns for the coming year.
Bitcoin Signals Bear Market Shift as Buyer Demand Fades
New York, Saturday, 20 December 2025.
CryptoQuant analysis warns Bitcoin has entered a bear market after plummeting 30% from its $126,000 October peak. Institutional buyer exhaustion and a looming $23 billion options expiry suggest further downside.
Global Economy Projected to Outperform Expectations with 2.8 Percent Growth in 2026
New York, Saturday, 20 December 2025.
Goldman Sachs predicts 2.8 percent global growth for 2026, beating consensus. This outlook relies on US tax cuts and massive AI infrastructure spending often missed by official economic statistics.
Japan Core Inflation Holds at Three Percent, Reinforcing Central Bank's Shift Toward Higher Rates
Tokyo, Friday, 19 December 2025.
Japan’s core consumer prices rose 3.0% in November 2025, matching October’s pace and aligning perfectly with market forecasts. This marks the 44th consecutive month that inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, driven significantly by a 4.9% jump in electricity costs following the end of government subsidies. While the broader rise in food prices is showing signs of deceleration, specific commodities remain volatile, with coffee bean prices surging 51.6% due to weather conditions in Brazil. This sustained inflationary pressure validates the Bank of Japan’s decision today, December 19, to raise the policy interest rate to 0.75%, signaling a decisive move away from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy as the economy adjusts to a new environment of persistent rising costs.
November Inflation Falls Unexpectedly to 2.7 Percent, Strengthening Case for Rate Cuts
Washington D.C., Friday, 19 December 2025.
Annual inflation cooled to 2.7 percent, defying the 3.1 percent forecast. However, the recent government shutdown forced the cancellation of October’s report, leaving analysts cautious about data quality.
NASDAQ Composite Slides Nearly 2.5% in Significant Intraday Sell-Off
New York, Friday, 19 December 2025.
On December 19, 2025, the NASDAQ Composite plunged approximately 2.49% to intraday lows of 22,906. This sharp retreat from the 23,000 level signals shifting investor sentiment regarding technology valuations, significantly widening the gap from the index’s October highs.