Orion Forecasts Strong 2026 as Cancer Drug Nubeqa Eyes One Billion Euro Milestone
Espoo, Wednesday, 14 January 2026.
Orion projects its prostate cancer treatment could surpass €1 billion in annual sales, signaling a shift to blockbuster status and underpinning a robust 2026 financial outlook.
New Financial Guidance Anchored by Nubeqa®
In a disclosure released on January 14, 2026, Orion Corporation provided investors with a clear roadmap for the fiscal year, projecting net sales to land between EUR 1,900 million and EUR 2,100 million [1]. This outlook is accompanied by an operating profit estimate ranging from EUR 550 million to EUR 750 million [1]. The Finnish pharmaceutical company has identified its prostate cancer treatment, Nubeqa®, as the primary engine for this growth, stating that the drug has now become its “largest product by far” [1]. This guidance arrives at a pivotal moment for Orion, as the company transitions from relying on sporadic milestone payments to sustained revenue generation from its core oncology portfolio.
The Path to Blockbuster Status
The most significant revelation in the January update is Orion’s long-term revenue projection for Nubeqa®. Based on scenario planning conducted alongside its partner Bayer, Orion estimates that the annual net sales recorded by the company—comprising tablet sales to Bayer plus royalties—have the potential to exceed EUR 1 billion in the future [1]. In the pharmaceutical industry, achieving the one-billion mark is widely regarded as the threshold for “blockbuster” status, a designation that fundamentally alters a drug’s economic profile [GPT]. While the company noted that this potential is subject to regulatory and market conditions [1], the projection offers a tangible metric for the drug’s expanding market share. Investors have been watching this trajectory closely; as of January 14, 2026, Orion Oyj A shares held a market capitalization of EUR 8.82 billion [7].
Operational Stability vs. Milestone Spikes
A critical component of the 2026 outlook is the composition of the projected revenue. Orion explicitly stated that the guidance for 2026 does not include any material milestone payments [1]. This stands in sharp contrast to the previous fiscal period, where the company received a substantial EUR 180 million milestone payment from Bayer regarding Nubeqa on December 3, 2025 [4]. By excluding such one-off payments from the 2026 estimates, Orion is signaling a reliance on organic sales growth to meet its targets. The company is expected to publish the full basis for this outlook in its Financial Statement Release, scheduled for February 12, 2026 [1].