U.S. Consumer Spending Rebounds, but Surging Gas Prices Threaten Future Growth
Washington D.C., Thursday, 2 April 2026.
U.S. retail sales rebounded in early 2026, but the Iran conflict cutting off 20% of the world’s oil supply threatens to derail future consumer spending with surging gas prices.
A Resilient Foundation Before the Geopolitical Storm
Prior to the recent geopolitical upheaval, the United States economy demonstrated robust consumer engagement. According to data released by the Commerce Department on March 26, 2026, advance estimates for February retail and food services sales reached $738.4 billion, climbing from $734 billion in January [1][2][7]. This represented a calculated increase of 0.599 percent, rebounding from an upwardly revised 0.1 percent decline in the previous month [1][2][4][7]. The performance exceeded the 0.4 percent monthly increase anticipated by the Action Economics Forecast Survey [5]. Furthermore, the “control group” of sales—a metric utilized by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to construct personal consumption expenditures in national accounts—rose by 0.5 percent in February, following a 0.2 percent increase in January [4][5]. This data, which is not adjusted for inflation, underscored a firm foundation for consumer spending during the first two months of the first quarter [3][4][6]. The February advance was notably broad-based, fueled in part by an unusually large jump in annual tax refunds, which averaged $350 higher through March 20 compared to the same period in the previous year [6][7]. Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealerships surged by 1.2 percent, marking