Report Forecasts India’s Coal Usage Will Double Before 2070 Decarbonization

2026-02-12 global

New Delhi, Thursday, 12 February 2026.
NITI Aayog predicts coal demand hitting 2.62 billion tons by 2050, necessitating a massive $22.7 trillion investment to successfully pivot toward India’s 2070 net-zero emissions goal.

The Coal Paradox in a Greening Economy

While the global narrative focuses heavily on immediate decarbonization, India’s path to energy security presents a more nuanced reality involving a significant, temporary expansion of fossil fuel use. A comprehensive report released earlier this week by NITI Aayog, the Indian government’s public policy think tank, projects that under current policies, the nation’s coal demand will surge from 1.26 billion metric tons in 2025 to 2.62 billion metric tons by 2050 [1][2]. This represents an increase of approximately 107.937% over the next quarter-century. Even within a framework specifically designed to meet India’s net-zero emissions target by 2070, coal consumption is still expected to peak at 1.83 billion tons in 2050 before beginning a precipitous decline [1][2].

Balancing Grid Stability with Growth

The rationale behind this continued reliance on coal lies in the necessity of maintaining a stable power grid while supporting a rapidly industrializing economy. Despite the aggressive deployment of renewable energy, coal remains essential for providing dependable baseload power and anchoring system reliability [6]. To meet the forecasted electricity demand, India aims to expand its coal power capacity from the current 212 GW to 307 GW by the 2034-35 fiscal year [1][2]. In the near term, these thermal plants are critical for backing up intermittent solar and wind capacity, though their role will eventually shift toward handling peak demand and emergencies as clean technologies mature [1][2].

The Financial Scale of Decarbonization

Achieving the dual objectives of economic development—termed ‘Viksit Bharat’ or Developed India—by 2047 and net-zero emissions by 2070 requires capital injection on an unprecedented scale. The NITI Aayog roadmap estimates that India needs a cumulative investment of $22.7 trillion to hit its net-zero targets [3][5]. The power sector alone accounts for more than half of this requirement, necessitating nearly $5 trillion in front-loaded investments by 2050 [3]. However, a significant financing gap persists; in 2024, actual annual investment stood at approximately $135 billion, with only $70–80 billion directed toward clean energy [3]. Bridging this deficit is critical, as the report identifies a $6.5 trillion financing gap against the total requirement [3].

Long-Term Transformation and Nuclear Expansion

Looking beyond the mid-century peak, the composition of India’s energy mix is slated for a radical transformation. By 2070, under the net-zero scenario, coal consumption is projected to collapse to 161 million tons, utilized primarily in hard-to-abate heavy industries like steel and cement, paired with carbon capture technologies [1][6]. To replace fossil baseload, the report outlines a massive expansion in nuclear power, projecting a capacity increase from approximately 8 GW in 2025 to between 290 GW and 320 GW by 2070 [5]. Furthermore, non-fossil electricity generation is expected to rise from 23% in 2025 to 100% by 2070 under the net-zero pathway, effectively decarbonizing the grid [5].

Sources

India Energy Coal Consumption