Kazakhstan’s Tengiz Oilfield Resumes Operations With Output Capped Below 50% Through Early February

2026-01-27 economy

Atyrau, Tuesday, 27 January 2026.
While operations have resumed, Kazakhstan’s largest oil producer expects to recover less than 50% of its usual output by February 7 following a critical power outage.

Initial Restart Volumes and Recovery Timeline

Following a week-long shutdown, Tengizchevroil (TCO) officially began restarting operations on Monday, January 26, 2026, though initial volumes remain a fraction of the field’s capacity [1][3]. Early reports from the restart phase indicate that production resumed at a rate of approximately 20,000 barrels per day (bpd), representing a mere 2% of the facility’s total capacity [4]. The operator has adopted a phased approach to bringing the systems back online to ensure the stability of the power distribution network, which was compromised during the incident [2]. While the Kazakhstan Energy Ministry has confirmed that the Korolev field and the Second Generation Plant (SGP) are operational, crude flows from Korolev were recorded at just 2,500 tonnes per day during the initial ramp-up [2].

Projected Output Levels Through Mid-February

The recovery trajectory suggests that global markets will not see a full return of Tengiz barrels in the immediate future. Current operational plans project that by February 5, 2026, production will reach 33,000 metric tons per day, or approximately 260,000 bpd, which equates to roughly 26% of usual levels [1]. By February 7, output is expected to climb to 57,000 metric tons per day, capping the recovery at 46% of normal production for the first week of February [1]. Looking further ahead, TCO anticipates that output could reach 670,000 bpd by mid-February 2026, provided technical stabilization continues without setbacks [1]. Despite the restart, TCO has not yet lifted the force majeure on CPC Blend crude supplies, signaling continued caution regarding export commitments [1].

Operational Disruptions and Infrastructure Impact

The disruption stems from a fire that broke out on January 18, 2026, involving two transformers at the GTES-4 power plant, a critical facility supplying electricity to the field’s processing trains [1][8]. This incident forced a complete temporary shutdown of both the Tengiz and Korolev fields to protect the integrity of the power distribution system [2][8]. While no casualties were reported, the damage to the generation infrastructure necessitated a careful, step-by-step restoration process overseen by a special commission established by the Kazakh Energy Ministry [2][8]. On January 20, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov met with ExxonMobil executives to expedite the resolution of the outage, highlighting the high-level government focus on stabilizing this key economic asset [1].

Economic Repercussions and Market Context

The outage at Tengiz, the world’s deepest producing supergiant oilfield, has had immediate ripple effects on energy markets and Kazakhstan’s economic metrics [1]. The halt in production contributed to upward pressure on global benchmarks, with Brent Crude prices rising above $65 per barrel following the shutdown [8]. Analysts at JPMorgan estimated on January 24 that the disruption would severely curtail the nation’s aggregate output, projecting Kazakhstan’s crude production to average between 1 million and 1.1 million bpd in January, a sharp decline from the usual 1.8 million bpd [1]. This contraction stands in stark contrast to the field’s strong performance in 2025, when Tengiz output exceeded 39 million tons, surpassing initial projections by the national oil company KazMunayGas [6].

Sources

Energy Commodities