Commercial Fishing Industry Blames Record Weather for Lower Menhaden Catches
Annapolis, Monday, 9 November 2026.
Harvesters dispute claims of an ecological collapse, showing gale warnings spiked 53 percent above average, keeping fleets docked as regulators consider a 50 percent Bay catch reduction.
Industry Pushback Against Ecological Claims
Commercial fishing industry representatives are challenging environmental groups’ assertions that reduced 2025 Atlantic menhaden landings in the Chesapeake Bay indicate an ecological stock collapse. Industry advocates argue that environmental coalitions, including the Chesapeake Bay Foundation (CBF) and the Forage Fish Campaign, have misrepresented catch data by failing to account for severe weather conditions that prevented vessels from operating during critical harvesting periods [1]. The dispute has intensified regulatory tensions between fisheries and conservationists, with potential implications for quota allocations, marine resource management, and supply chains dependent on menhaden-derived products such as fishmeal and oil.
Weather Conditions as Primary Factor
Analysis of 2025 weather data reveals that severe weather was the primary driver of reduced landings. Across 11 coastal forecast zones from the Virginia-North Carolina border to the western New York Bight, days under gale-or-stronger warnings during August through December 2025 averaged 53 percent above the preceding 10-year average, while warning hours were 63 percent above average [1]. Small craft advisories or stronger wind and sea warnings also increased by 20 percent above the previous 10-year average, marking the highest level in an 11-year comparison [1]. NOAA buoy records at Cape Henry (Virginia), Barnegat (New Jersey), and the New York Harbor entrance showed their highest number of dates reaching a 3-foot wave threshold—the operational limit for menhaden vessels—during the August–December 2025 period [1].
Impact on Fishing Operations and Quotas
The Chesapeake Bay menhaden harvest cap, which has been in place since 2006 and currently stands at 51,000 metric tons [4], was significantly impacted by weather conditions in 2025. Industry reports indicate that the reduction fleet caught only 60 percent of its quota, with roughly 95 percent of the season’s gale-warning days falling between August and December [1]. At the Cape Henry buoy, significant wave heights reached at least 3 feet on 126 of 144 comparable August-December dates in 2025, surpassing the 10-year average of 112.2 dates [1]. Similarly, Barnegat, New Jersey, and the New York Harbor entrance recorded their highest counts in an 11-year comparison for dates reaching the 3-foot wave threshold [1].
Regulatory Response and Future Implications
The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC) is scheduled to vote on November 10–11, 2026, to consider lowering the Chesapeake Bay menhaden reduction fishery catch limit by up to 50 percent, redistributing the catch annually, reducing coastwide harvest maximums, and reallocating catch to New England states [4]. Omega Protein, which operates the last East Coast menhaden reduction plant in Reedville, Virginia, has documented its fleet boats floating at the dock in September 2026, underscoring the operational challenges faced [4]. A 2025 population reassessment found that the ASMFC’s previous model overestimated menhaden abundance by about a third, leading to a 20 percent coastwide harvest reduction for 2026 [4]. Fisheries experts project that an additional 39 percent reduction in coastwide catch is needed for a 50-50 chance of meeting striped bass rebuilding targets by 2029 [4].
Public Engagement and Industry Advocacy
In response to the regulatory process, the Saltwater Guides Association launched a campaign on November 6, 2026, urging the public to email menhaden commissioners ahead of the ASMFC meeting [3]. The campaign highlights that the reduction fleet failed to fill even 60 percent of its assigned quota in 2025 and emphasizes the need for accountability in the fishery [3]. The Menhaden Board’s upcoming vote has galvanized both industry advocates and conservation groups, with the latter arguing that the 2025 landings data supports stricter catch limits to protect the Bay’s food chain [1][4].