California Street Homelessness Declines Nearly Thirteen Percent Over Two Years

2026-10-29 politics

Sacramento, Thursday, 29 October 2026.
California’s unsheltered homeless population fell nearly 13% between 2024 and 2026, marking a rare two-year decline driven by expanded state shelter investments and tighter local accountability measures.

A Historic Two-Year Reversal

California’s unsheltered homeless population has fallen nearly 13% since 2024, according to preliminary 2026 data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), reversing a two-decade trend of steady increases[1][2]. The decline follows a 7.3% reduction reported in 2025, marking the first consecutive annual declines since the early 2000s[3][4]. Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat who took office in January 2019, has framed the trend as evidence that systemic homelessness is not an intractable crisis but a policy challenge with measurable solutions[1][2]. 97400

Policy Interventions and Structural Investments

The drop coincides with the implementation of California’s most aggressive homelessness interventions in decades. Proposition 1, approved by voters in March 2024, allocated over $6.38 billion to fund 6,800 residential treatment beds and 26,700 outpatient treatment slots statewide[2]. In October 2023, Newsom signed SB 43 (the Community Assistance, Recovery, and Empowerment Act), modernizing conservatorship laws to compel treatment for individuals with severe mental illness or substance use disorders[2]. Additionally, the state rolled out the Community Assistance, Recovery, and Empowerment (CARE) Court system to all 58 counties by December 2024, providing court-ordered care plans for eligible individuals[2]. The governor also invested $77 million in a cap-and-invest program to revitalize the Jordan Downs public housing project in South Los Angeles[2].

County-Level Outcomes and Data Variability

Not all regions reported uniform progress. Preliminary HUD data for 2026 show a 7.3% decline in unsheltered homelessness across 37 reporting Continuum of Care communities, which cover nearly 90% of the state’s unsheltered population in 2025[2]. However, total homelessness (including sheltered individuals) declined by only 3.4% year-over-year, and some counties—particularly in the Central Valley and Northern California—reported increases in chronic homelessness[2][3]. In Los Angeles County, home to over one-third of the state’s unsheltered population, the decline was less pronounced at 6.7%[2]. State officials attribute slower progress in dense urban centers to higher housing costs, regulatory barriers, and entrenched encampments[2].

Political Narratives and the Road Ahead

Newsom, who is termed out as governor in January 2027, has positioned the decline as a validation of his administration’s strategy, contrasting California’s performance with national trends[1][2]. While the national unsheltered homelessness rate increased by 26% from 2019 to 2025, California’s rate grew by only 6.6% during the same period[2]. Critics, including former Fox News host Steve Hilton and some Republican lawmakers, argue that the state’s approach remains underfunded and ineffective, pointing to persistent encampments and high visible homelessness in major cities[5][6]. Hilton, a conservative commentator, has proposed ending mass homelessness by 2027 through a three-point plan: enforcing laws against illegal encampments, shifting from harm reduction to active addiction treatment, and redirecting funds to recovery centers[5][6]. Meanwhile, Newsom has framed the issue as a moral and economic imperative, stating, ‘We’re not backing down — and we’re not done’[1][2].

The decline in unsheltered homelessness carries significant implications for California’s commercial real estate and municipal budgets. Cities like San Francisco and Oakland have reported reduced pressure on public spaces, infrastructure, and sanitation services, with some reporting a 9% drop in unsheltered individuals and an 8% reduction in veteran homelessness between 2024 and 2025[1]. However, the state’s total homeless population remains the second-highest on record at 187,084 in 2026, down from a peak of 188,299 in 2005 but still far above the 123,480 recorded in 2010[1]. Analysts warn that without sustained investment in affordable housing and mental health infrastructure, gains could reverse, particularly as economic pressures and climate-related displacement (e.g., wildfires) continue to strain resources[alert! ‘Proposition 1 funding is front-loaded; long-term sustainability depends on continued state and federal support’][2].

Sources

Homelessness policy Urban economics