Canadian Exports to China Reach Record Highs Driven by Energy Growth
Ottawa, Monday, 14 September 2026.
Canadian exports to China jumped 30.1% to $21.74 billion in early 2026, boosted by an 81.8% surge in energy shipments, marking a record half-year for trade.
Record-Breaking Export Growth in Energy Sector
Canadian exports to China surged 30.1% to $21.74 billion in the first half of 2026, marking a record for semi-annual trade performance [1][3]. This significant increase was primarily driven by the energy and minerals sector, which accounted for 58.4% of all domestic exports to China during this period [1][3]. Energy exports, consisting mainly of crude oil and liquified propane, grew by 81.8%, while metal ores and non-metallic minerals rose by 29% [1][3]. The Trans Mountain Pipeline reached 97% capacity in June 2026, facilitating increased access to Asian markets for Western Canadian crude oil [1][3]. Supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, related to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, further bolstered oil export growth by incentivizing Chinese demand for Canadian energy [1][3].
Import Declines and Shifting Trade Deficits
Concurrently, Canadian imports from China dropped 5.8% to $44.86 billion in the first half of 2026, contributing to a 25% reduction in Canada’s trade deficit with China [1][3]. Ontario recorded the largest decline in imports, specifically in portable computers and video game consoles, despite increased purchases of lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles [1][3]. As part of a bilateral deal reached in early 2026, 15,603 Chinese electric vehicles entered the Canadian market in exchange for Beijing suspending or reducing tariffs on Canadian agricultural goods like canola meal, peas, and canola seed [1][3]. Canola seed prices rebounded from $12 per bushel during the tariff dispute to $17 per bushel following the agreement [1][3]. Total consumer goods trade between Canada and China reached $66.6 billion, a 3.6% year-over-year increase [1][3].
Strategic Pivot Amid Global Trade Tensions
Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a video address earlier this month regarding Canada’s trade pivot amid retaliatory tariffs against the United States [1][3]. Carney stated, “We have everything we need to pivot and prosper. That pivot will come at a cost. There’s always a cost to action. But it doesn’t come close to the cost of standing still” [1][3]. The China-Canada Financial Working Group was launched in spring 2026 by Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne during a diplomatic visit to Beijing to strengthen bilateral relations [3]. Bijan Ahmadi, executive director of the Canada-China Business Council, noted, “This is a record for our first half of the year exports to China” [1][3]. However, export growth remains limited to specific commodity groups and is still lower than export volumes to the United Kingdom and the European Union [1][3].
Future Outlook and Policy Deadlines
Mark Maki, CEO of Trans Mountain, projected in early September 2026 that Asia would account for 70% of Canada’s oil exports by 2028 [1][3]. On September 9, 2026, André Desmarais, Honorary Chair of the Canada China Business Council, met with Vice Premier He Lifeng in Beijing to discuss bilateral economic cooperation [4]. The current tariff suspension and reductions on Canadian agricultural products with China are scheduled to expire at the end of 2026 [1][3]. A comprehensive assessment of trade performance is expected following the release of year-end data for 2026 [1][3]. Ahmadi identifies the Asia-Pacific region as a key area for potential engagement, noting that China accounts for nearly 50% of total market opportunities for Canadian businesses [1][3].