Syrian Rebels Encircle Damascus Amid Rapid Advances

2024-12-08 global

Damascus, Saturday, 7 December 2024.
Syrian rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, have taken control of multiple cities and are closing in on Damascus, threatening President Assad’s regime and altering the conflict’s balance.

Lightning Offensive Reshapes Syrian Conflict

In a dramatic series of victories, Syrian opposition forces have captured several major cities since late November 2024, including Aleppo on November 29 [3] and Hama on December 5 [1][3]. The rebels’ lightning offensive has expanded further with the seizure of Daraa, Sweida, and Quneitra as of December 6 [5], marking unprecedented territorial gains against President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule [1]. The opposition now controls ten of Syria’s fourteen provincial capitals, with the government maintaining control of only Damascus, Homs, Latakia, and Tartus [2].

Mass Military Defections and Strategic Gains

The Syrian army’s control has crumbled dramatically, with troops fleeing en masse to neighboring countries [1]. According to Iraqi officials, more than 1,500 Syrian soldiers have surrendered their weapons and sought refuge in Iraq [6]. The situation has become particularly critical with reports that Syrian regime forces may have abandoned the Al-Mazzeh military airport near Damascus [6]. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani has declared that ‘the rebels do indeed aim to overthrow the Assad regime’ [4], while HTS commander Hassan Abdul Ghani announced they have ‘begun implementing the final phase of encircling the capital’ [5].

International Response and Humanitarian Concerns

The rapid collapse of government control has prompted international reaction, with U.N. special envoy Geir Pedersen noting that ‘the situation in Syria was changing by the minute’ [2]. The United Nations has begun moving noncritical staff outside Syria as a precautionary measure [2]. Meanwhile, residents in Damascus report shortages of supplies and rising prices, with many shops running out of staples [2]. The conflict has taken a severe toll, with over 820 people, including 111 civilians, reported killed since the rebels began their offensive [5].

Strategic Implications and Future Prospects

The rebels’ success is attributed to reduced Iranian and Hezbollah support for the regime and improved internal coordination among opposition forces [3]. Israeli and U.S. officials indicate that the rapid rebel advances have increased the likelihood of the Assad regime’s collapse [6]. An Israeli intelligence official stated, ‘Things are moving very fast and there is a domino effect. There is going to be fighting in Damascus soon’ [6]. The capture of Homs, which connects Damascus to government strongholds on the Mediterranean coast, would represent a critical turning point, with expert H.A. Hellyer noting, ‘It’s pretty much the end game for Assad if the rebels take Homs’ [5].

Sources

Syria rebels