World Bank Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecast to Post-Pandemic Low Amid US-Iran War
Washington, Friday, 12 June 2026.
The World Bank cut 2026 global growth to 2.5% amid the US-Iran war, warning that surging $94-a-barrel oil could drag the economy to its lowest point since the pandemic.
The Anatomy of a Global Slowdown
The global economic landscape has fundamentally shifted following the eruption of the United States and Iran conflict on February 28, 2026 [3][6]. On June 11, 2026, the World Bank officially downgraded its baseline global growth forecast for the year to 2.5%, a marked reduction from the 2.9% projection made in January [1][3]. The primary catalyst for this deceleration is the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman [GPT] through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows [6]. This severe supply chain disruption has prompted the World Bank to downgrade the economic outlook for two-thirds of the world’s nations, underscoring the broad contagion of the conflict [1][6].