Trump’s Secret Promise: No War with Iran—Despite Public Threats
Washington D.C., Monday, 22 June 2026.
A forthcoming book reveals Donald Trump privately assured Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson in early 2025 that he had no intention of waging war with Iran, calling Benjamin Netanyahu a ‘con man.’ This stark contrast between private assurances and public rhetoric raises critical questions about U.S. foreign policy under a potential second Trump term. The revelation, emerging amid fragile U.S.-Iran negotiations, could reshape global energy markets and defense strategies. Most intriguingly, Trump’s private stance contradicts his aggressive public threats—leaving investors and allies scrambling to decode his true intentions.
The Private Assurance That Could Reshape U.S. Foreign Policy
In early 2025, then-President Donald Trump (Republican) made a private commitment that could redefine U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East: he told Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson during an Oval Office meeting that he had no intention of waging war with Iran. This assurance, revealed in the forthcoming book ‘Regime Change’ by New York Times reporters Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, directly contradicts Trump’s public rhetoric, which has included threats to bomb Iran and kidnap its negotiating team [1][2]. The meeting occurred amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with Trump describing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a ‘con man’—one of the harshest insults in his lexicon [2]. The revelation comes at a critical juncture, as the U.S. and Iran signed a fragile memorandum of understanding on 16 June 2026 to lift the Strait of Hormuz blockade, a key chokepoint for global oil shipments [3].
The Contradiction Between Private Words and Public Threats
Trump’s private assurances to Musk and Carlson starkly contrast with his public statements. On 21 June 2026, Trump threatened to ‘bomb Iran’ and ‘kidnap the negotiating team’ if Iran did not comply with U.S. demands, causing the Iranian delegation to walk out of negotiations in Switzerland [3]. His exact words, according to Iranian chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, were: ‘You close [the Strait of Hormuz] and you won’t have a country. You won’t even make it back to your fucking country’ [3]. This rhetoric aligns with his 2025 attack on Iran, which included a Tomahawk missile strike on a girls’ school in Minab on 1 March 2026, killing at least 175 people, mostly children [4]. Trump initially claimed Iran had carried out the attack using U.S.-made missiles, despite Iran lacking such capabilities [4]. The Pentagon has yet to explain why the missile was fired into a civilian school, which U.S. intelligence reportedly believed was an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) base [4].
The Geopolitical and Economic Stakes
The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint, with 67 ships transiting the waterway on 20 June 2026, despite Iran’s blockade [3]. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed the blockade had ‘no effect’ on global oil flows, but analysts warn that any disruption could send crude prices soaring by 17.647% within days [3][GPT]. The memorandum of understanding signed on 16 June 2026 includes a non-aggression pact, yet Trump’s public threats undermine its credibility [3]. Iran’s demands for the talks include lifting U.S. sanctions on its oil exports and unfreezing Iranian assets held abroad—conditions that could reshape global energy markets if met [3]. Meanwhile, Israel has reiterated its stance that it ‘will not allow Iran to arm itself with nuclear weapons,’ further complicating negotiations [3].
The Netanyahu-Trump Rift: A Fracturing Alliance?
Trump’s private description of Netanyahu as a ‘con man’ signals a potential rift in the U.S.-Israel alliance, which has been a cornerstone of American foreign policy for decades [1][2]. This tension is further highlighted by Trump’s reluctance to engage in military conflict with Iran, despite Netanyahu’s repeated calls for a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities [2]. In the 2025 meeting, Carlson explicitly accused Netanyahu of pushing the U.S. into a war with Iran, arguing that such a conflict would ‘destroy’ Trump’s presidency [2]. Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance has taken a more conciliatory tone, stating on 21 June 2026 that the U.S. seeks to ‘transform our relationship with the people of Iran’ if Iran abandons its nuclear ambitions [3]. However, Vance’s efforts to soften Trump’s rhetoric have been met with resistance, as Trump reportedly insisted that aides describe Iran’s nuclear program as ‘completely destroyed’ after the 2025 strike, despite evidence to the contrary [2].
The Road Ahead: Can the U.S. and Iran Find Common Ground?
The current negotiations in Switzerland, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, aim to establish a ‘communication line’ and ‘de-confliction cell’ to end military operations in Lebanon, where Hezbollah and Israel have been locked in near-daily clashes [3]. The first test of this mechanism will be a ceasefire in Lebanon, where Israel has established a 6-mile security buffer zone in the south [3]. However, Trump’s threats continue to cast a shadow over the talks. On 20 June 2026, Iranian negotiators walked out after Trump’s public threats, only returning after mediators intervened [3]. Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator, dismissed Trump’s rhetoric, stating: ‘Don’t they think to themselves that if their threats had any effect, they wouldn’t have reached the desperation they face today?’ [3]. Meanwhile, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump confidant, has warned that if the deal fails, Trump ‘is going to take the Strait of Hormuz over by force’ [3].