Economic Pessimism Among Young Voters Threatens GOP Midterm Prospects
Washington, Wednesday, 18 February 2026.
Gen Z support for the administration has collapsed, with 67% now disapproving largely due to labor market anxieties, signaling a potential pivot for the 2026 midterm elections.
A Sharp Reversal in Youth Sentiment
As of February 18, 2026, the political landscape for the upcoming midterm elections is showing signs of a dramatic realignment, specifically among America’s youngest voters. While Generation Z played a pivotal role in President Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory, recent polling data indicates a precipitous collapse in support for the administration. An Economist/YouGov poll conducted between February 6 and February 9, 2026, reveals that approval for the President among adults aged 18-29 has fallen to just 25%, while disapproval has surged to 67% [1][5]. This represents a massive shift in sentiment; in February 2025, 50% of this demographic approved of the President’s performance, marking a decline of 25 percentage points in exactly one year [1][5].
The Collapse of the ‘Bro-Vote’
This erosion of support is perhaps most visible among young men, a demographic that broke decisively for the Republican ticket in the last general election. In 2024, President Trump secured 54% of the vote share among men aged 18-29 [5]. However, fresh data from a Third Way poll released on February 10, 2026, indicates that his job approval within this specific group has withered to 32%, with nearly two-thirds (66%) now disapproving [5]. The volatility of this voting bloc is further highlighted by CBS News data, which tracked the President’s net job approval among Gen Z falling from +10 points in February 2025 to -32 points by mid-January 2026 [5].
Economic Anxiety Drives Discontent
The primary catalyst for this exodus appears to be deep-seated economic pessimism. Despite White House spokesperson Kush Desai’s recent statement that administration policies have successfully “cooled inflation, raised real wages, [and] accelerated GDP growth” over the past year [1][2], these macroeconomic indicators are not resonating with younger voters. In a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted earlier this month (February 3-5, 2026), 58% of respondents under 30 stated they felt the economy was “getting worse” [5]. This disconnect is palpable in focus groups; voters like Kim from Virginia describe the current economic environment as “disappointing and very rough,” citing persistent struggles with the job market [1][2].
The Rise of the Independent Voter
While this shift presents a significant liability for Republicans—who historically face losses in midterm elections—it does not guarantee a straightforward victory for the Democratic Party. The bedrock of the Democratic coalition is also showing signs of fracture, with support among Black, Latino, and younger voters eroding over the last 14 months [3]. A New York Times survey from January 2026 indicates that less than half (48%) of registered Black voters now identify as Democrats, a drop from 63% in 2024 [3]. Consequently, the electorate is seeing a surge in non-aligned voters; as of 2025, a record 45% of Americans identified as political independents [4][6].