Tech Surge and GDP Reports Guide Investors Through Holiday Week
New York, Monday, 22 December 2025.
Amid thinning holiday liquidity, investors pivot to crucial GDP data and a technology rally led by Micron, seeking signals of economic resilience ahead of 2026 policy shifts.
Holiday Liquidity and Tech Momentum
As the final full trading week of 2025 commences, financial markets are navigating a landscape characterized by thinning liquidity and a shortened schedule, with the New York Stock Exchange set to close early on December 24 and remain shuttered on December 25 for Christmas [1]. Despite the anticipated quietude, investor attention is firmly fixed on a resurgence in the technology sector, which provided significant lift to U.S. equities leading into the weekend [1][5]. On Friday, December 19, the market witnessed a robust rally in semiconductor and software names; Micron Technology finished roughly 7% higher at $265.92, while NVIDIA rose 3.93% to close at $180 [5]. This momentum appears to be sustaining itself, with U.S. equity futures trading higher on December 21, led by advances in AI-related stocks including a 1.9% premarket gain for NVIDIA and a 3.8% surge for Micron [2].
Corporate Shifts: Oracle and TikTok
Beyond the semiconductor rally, significant corporate developments are shaping market sentiment. Oracle shares jumped 6.35% to $191.92 on December 19 following reports that ByteDance has signed an agreement to transfer control of TikTok’s U.S. operations to a group of investors, including the enterprise software giant [5]. This strategic shift has fueled optimism in the tech sector, contrasting sharply with struggles in consumer discretionary markets, where Nike shares slumped 10.54% to $58.71 citing headwinds in China sales [5]. These diverging fortunes highlight a market that is increasingly selective, rewarding technological innovation and strategic acquisitions while penalizing exposure to softening consumer demand in key international markets.
Critical Economic Data on the Horizon
The central macroeconomic event for the week is the release of delayed Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will offer a critical report card on the U.S. economy’s health as it transitions into 2026. Scheduled for release on Tuesday, December 23, at 13:30 GMT, the preliminary quarter-over-quarter GDP print is forecasted by some analysts to come in at 3.2%, a moderation from the prior reading of 3.8% [1]. However, forecasts differ among institutions; RBC Economics projects a more conservative annualized growth rate of 2.5% for the third quarter, noting that while cyclically-exposed services sectors have begun to shed jobs, the broader economy remains relatively firm [4]. This data is particularly significant as investors look for confirmation that the economy was on solid footing prior to the government shutdown in October [5].
Forward-Looking Policy Implications
These growth figures, alongside upcoming labor market data, are pivotal for calibrating expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy in the coming year. Weekly unemployment claims, scheduled for release on December 24, are forecasted to dip to 220,000 from a prior 224,000, suggesting a labor market that is cooling yet resilient [1]. Market participants are currently pricing in approximately 16.5 basis points of rate cuts for the March FOMC meeting, with expectations for roughly 60 basis points of easing embedded between now and the end of 2026 [5]. Traders are betting on at least two rate cuts in 2026, with a 20% probability that the first reduction could occur as early as January [6]. As the trading year concludes, the interplay between resilient tech earnings and macroeconomic data will likely dictate the tone for early 2026.