Presidential Approval Drops to Record Lows Ahead of Upcoming Elections
Washington, Monday, 3 August 2026.
President Trump’s net approval rating has plunged to minus 24 amid rising gas prices and trade tariffs, leaving him underwater across key swing states three months before the November midterms.
National Polling Trends
Recent data indicates a significant shift in public sentiment, with President Trump's national approval rating standing at 36 percent as of July 30, 2026 [3]. Disapproval figures have climbed to 59 percent, resulting in a net approval rating of -23 [3]. This net rating of minus 23 marks a historic low for the administration's second term, falling below the comparable midterm checkpoint of the previous administration [3]. The polling data, derived from a rolling online tracking survey of over 120,000 registered voters, suggests a broad-based decline in support [2].
Political analysts note that this downturn correlates with specific policy implementations and geopolitical events occurring throughout 2025 and 2026 [2]. The Civiqs poll, which has gathered responses since January 20, 2025, highlights that every one of the 11 states now recording negative net approval ratings had previously given Trump a positive approval margin at the start of his second term [2]. This erosion of support in previously secure regions underscores the volatility of the current political landscape [4].
### Regional Shifts in Voter Sentiment ###State-by-state analysis reveals that Trump's net approval has turned negative in 11 states he won by double-digit margins in the 2024 election [2]. Alaska and Iowa have recorded some of the sharpest declines, with net approval ratings standing at minus 14 in both states [2]. Texas and Ohio follow closely with net ratings of minus 13, indicating substantial erosion in key Republican strongholds [2]. Even in Wyoming, where his net approval fell from plus 45 at the beginning of his term to plus 19, the decline is evident despite the state remaining positive overall [2].
In swing states, the President is currently underwater across the board, including Georgia at minus 22 and Pennsylvania at minus 18 [3]. This contrasts sharply with the start of his second term on January 20, 2025, when approval margins were positive in many of these regions [3]. Demographic data further illuminates the trend, with approval ratings among voters aged 18 to 34 dropping to 22 percent [3]. Postgraduates show similar disapproval trends, with 72 percent disapproving of the job performance [3].
### Economic and Geopolitical Drivers ###The decline in approval is closely linked to economic pressures and foreign policy decisions made during the term. Trump's support began to decline after his administration introduced sweeping tariffs on US trading partners in April 2025 [2]. Furthermore, the downturn accelerated following the start of the US war on Iran in February 2026, which has been associated with disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz [2]. As the war nears its six-month mark, the average price of a gallon of gas in the U.S. reached roughly $4.11, up from about $3.15 a year ago [5]. This represents a significant increase in energy costs for consumers 30.476 [5].
Looking ahead, the midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, with control of Congress at stake [3]. Democrats need to gain four seats to secure a Senate majority, and recent polls have shown Democratic candidates holding narrow leads in key states like Iowa, Ohio, and Texas [2]. While the White House maintains that the President has achieved historic progress, the polling data suggests a challenging environment for incumbent Republicans heading into the final three months before the election [4].