Washington Facilitates India's Strategic Shift from Russian to Venezuelan Crude

2026-02-01 global

New Delhi, Sunday, 1 February 2026.
Leveraging recent control over Venezuelan energy, Washington is actively encouraging India to swap Russian crude for Venezuelan imports, strategically displacing Moscow’s market share while stabilizing global supply.

A Strategic Pivot in Energy Diplomacy

In a significant reversal of policy, the United States has explicitly informed New Delhi that it may soon resume purchasing Venezuelan oil to displace its reliance on Russian crude [1][3]. This directive, communicated on Friday, January 30, 2026, marks a departure from the stance taken in March 2025, when President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on nations purchasing oil from Venezuela [1][3]. The move is designed to stabilize global supply chains while tightening the economic net around Moscow, leveraging Washington’s newfound influence over Caracas following the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3 [1][7].

The “Concept of a Deal”

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Saturday, January 31, President Trump confirmed the arrangement, stating, “We’ve already made that deal, the concept of the deal” [2][5]. While the President remarked that India would purchase Venezuelan crude “as opposed to buying it from Iran,” analysts clarify that India had already ceased loading Iranian oil in 2019 due to previous U.S. sanctions [2][4]. President Trump further indicated that the market for Venezuelan oil is open to other major economies, noting that China is also “welcome to come in and would make a great deal on oil” [2][5].

Tariff Pressures and Market Realities

This diplomatic opening follows a period of intense economic pressure. In August 2025, Washington doubled duties on Indian imports to 50% to discourage New Delhi from funding Russia’s war effort through energy purchases [2][5]. The strategy appears to be taking effect; India’s imports of Russian oil fell to a two-year low in December 2025 [1][3]. Current data places India’s Russian oil imports at approximately 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for January 2026, with projections indicating a further decline to roughly 1 million bpd in February and 800,000 bpd by March [1][3].

Renewed Bilateral Engagement

The energy pivot is underpinned by a rapid normalization of diplomatic ties between New Delhi and Caracas. On Friday, January 30, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a telephone conversation with Venezuela’s Acting President Delcy Rodríguez to discuss deepening cooperation in energy, trade, and investment [3][6]. This dialogue represents the first leadership-level contact between the two nations since the U.S. military operation in Caracas earlier in the month [7]. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled that the additional tariffs on Indian goods could be removed in light of the sharp reduction in Russian oil imports [2][5].

Sources

Sanctions Crude Oil