Commercial Space Market Projected to Reach One Trillion Dollars by 2030
New York, Wednesday, 2 September 2026.
Investment bank Berenberg initiated coverage on key space stocks, projecting the global space economy will hit $1 trillion by 2030 as rapidly falling launch costs drive commercial expansion.
Analyst Ratings and Price Targets
Investment bank Berenberg has initiated coverage on three prominent U.S.-listed space companies, assigning ‘Buy’ ratings to AST SpaceMobile Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS), Rocket Lab USA Inc. (NASDAQ: RKLB), and Planet Labs PBC (NYSE: PL) [1][3]. The firm established a price target of $92 for AST SpaceMobile, implying a potential upside of 65% from recent trading levels [2][5]. Rocket Lab received a price target of $83, representing a 36% upside, while Planet Labs was assigned a target of $25 [1][3]. Analyst Michael Filatov noted that falling launch costs have helped push the space economy past $500 billion in 2025, and the market is now on track to exceed $1 trillion by 2030 [2][3]. This trajectory implies the market size must double, represented by 2, from 2025 levels to meet the 2030 forecast [1][3]. The report highlights a structural transition from government-led space programs toward privatized, high-margin commercial space operations [1].
Operational Milestones and Competitive Edge
Recent operational activities underscore the growth potential identified by Berenberg. In June 2026, Rocket Lab launched the Pioneer spacecraft for the U.S. Space Force, reinforcing its position as an end-to-end public pure-play in space [1][3]. AST SpaceMobile launched BlueBirds 8-10 in June 2026 and BlueBirds 11-13 in August 2026 via SpaceX Falcon 9, expanding its constellation [1][3]. Planet Labs is distinguished by its capability to image the entire Earth daily, utilizing a proprietary, years-long imagery archive that analysts believe would be difficult for rivals to reproduce [1][3]. Analysts project artificial intelligence will increase demand for Planet Labs’ imagery by utilizing it as real-world training data and improving the scalability of archive analysis for customers [1]. AST SpaceMobile maintains partnerships with over 60 mobile network operators covering approximately 3 billion subscribers [3][5].
Macroeconomic Headwinds and Market Sentiment
Despite the positive long-term outlook, immediate market conditions present challenges. As of 2026-09-02, pre-market trading showed ASTS down 0.9%, PL down 0.8%, and RKLB down nearly 3% [1]. Year-to-date performance for 2026 shows declines across the sector, with ASTS shares down approximately 18%, RKLB shares down over 33%, and PL shares down around 6% [1][3]. Broader economic factors are influencing sentiment, as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen over 80 basis points since 2026-03-01, reaching 4.79% on 2026-09-01 [6]. Market experts warn that rising bond yields create duration risk for equity valuations, particularly in sectors where performance relies heavily on future profit expectations [6]. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits for PL turned extremely bullish on 2026-09-01, while sentiment for RKLB and ASTS remained bearish over the 24-hour period ending 2026-09-02 [1][3].