SpaceX Gears Up for Unprecedented Dual Rocket Catch Following Huge Revenue Growth
Hawthorne, Thursday, 12 November 2026.
Ahead of Friday’s critical double-catch test, SpaceX’s latest quarterly sales surged to $14.6 billion, driven by an unexpected $7.56 billion boom in its rapidly expanding artificial intelligence computing business.
A Record-Breaking Quarter Sets the Stage
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) delivered a blockbuster quarter on Thursday, 11 November 2026, reporting total revenue of $14.6 billion, a 67.816% increase from the same period last year, according to internal filings and market data [2][4]. The company’s artificial intelligence (AI) segment generated $7.56 billion, more than double its Starlink connectivity revenue of $5.25 billion, marking the first time AI has surpassed core launch services as SpaceX’s largest revenue driver [2][4][6]. This seismic shift underscores how Elon Musk’s company is evolving from a launch provider into a vertically integrated technology giant spanning space infrastructure, broadband, and AI infrastructure [6]. The financial performance has sent shockwaves through Wall Street, with the company’s market capitalization briefly exceeding $1.9 trillion in intraday trading on 11 November 2026 [5].
Friday’s High-Stakes Dual Rocket Catch
All eyes are now on Boca Chica, Texas, where SpaceX plans to execute its most ambitious Starship recovery attempt to date on Friday, 13 November 2026. The company will attempt the world’s first dual-stage catch, using tower-mounted arms to simultaneously retrieve both the Super Heavy booster and the Starship upper stage approximately 6.5 minutes after liftoff, scheduled for after 5:45 PM ET [1]. The upper stage will then orbit Earth for over 22 hours, deploying 26 Starlink V3 satellites before a planned second catch attempt on Saturday [1]. This high-wire act follows three successful booster catches earlier in 2026 but has never been attempted on the Starship upper stage, which only reached orbit for the first time during Flight 14 in September 2026 [1][GPT]. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas called the event ‘the biggest positive catalyst since the IPO,’ while Elon Musk stated the outcome is ‘more likely than not’ to succeed, citing repeated successful booster recoveries [1][GPT].
Valuation and Market Dynamics in Flux
SpaceX’s post-IPO valuation has become a focal point amid speculation about a potential merger with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), which would create a combined entity worth nearly $3.5 trillion as of November 2026 [4]. Analysts warn that achieving such a valuation by 2030 would require extraordinary earnings growth, given Tesla’s stagnant revenue trajectory and declining EBIT margins—from nearly $15 billion in late 2022 to $3.63 billion by late 2026 [4]. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s price-to-sales ratio stands at an eye-watering 56, far exceeding Tesla’s 13, reflecting investor confidence in its AI and connectivity segments [4][5]. The company’s forward guidance projects fourth-quarter capital expenditures of $35 billion to $40 billion, a 166.667% increase from Q3 2025 levels, to support Starlink expansion and AI infrastructure scaling [3].
AI Revenue Surge and Structural Risks
Elon Musk’s candid remarks on 8 November 2026 highlighted a structural vulnerability in SpaceX’s business model: if AI compute becomes ‘plentiful and cheap,’ the company’s high-margin AI infrastructure revenue—currently tied to long-term contracts with Anthropic at spot-market rates—could plummet [3]. Musk emphasized that this dynamic ‘works both ways,’ noting that a repricing of compute services could either boost or erode revenue depending on market conditions [3]. SpaceX’s CFO, Bret Johnsen, confirmed in October 2026 that compute pricing had tracked slightly above a $30 to $50 per watt range, aligning with Musk’s assessment of a potential repricing scenario [3]. Analysts at TIKR project SpaceX’s total revenue could reach $335 billion by 2028, a 2194.521% increase, driven predominantly by AI and Starlink growth [3].