Treasury Secretary Forecasts U.S. Economic Growth by Q4 2025

2025-09-08 economy

Washington D.C., Sunday, 7 September 2025.
Amid rising inflation and a weakening job market, Treasury Secretary Bessent predicts significant U.S. economic growth by late 2025, crediting Trump’s policies and emphasizing EU collaboration on Russian sanctions.

Current Economic Climate and Treasury’s Optimism

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s prediction of economic growth by the fourth quarter of 2025 comes amid contrasting signals from the U.S. economy. Despite rising inflation and a weakening job market, Bessent remains optimistic, attributing the expected growth to President Trump’s economic policies. This outlook contrasts with recent governmental data that indicate a rise in inflation and a decline in job market strength [1][2].

Policy Impact and Economic Indicators

In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.5%, followed by a robust 3.3% growth in the second quarter. Bessent anticipates this positive trend to continue, albeit at a slightly slower rate of 3% in the current quarter, according to the latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow projection [1]. This forecast aligns with some investor sentiment, as recession odds have decreased significantly in prediction markets [1].

Challenges and Responses: Inflation and Job Market

The August nonfarm payrolls report revealed a modest increase of 22,000 jobs, which fell short of market expectations and underscored the challenges in the labor market [5]. Furthermore, prominent economists like Mark Zandi have expressed concern about a potential ‘labor recession’ that could escalate into a broader economic downturn if layoffs increase [6].

International Strategy: Sanctions and Economic Diplomacy

Bessent also emphasized the strategic necessity of collaborative sanctions with the European Union to destabilize the Russian economy, aiming to bring President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table over the Ukraine conflict. This international cooperation is seen as crucial not only for geopolitical stability but also for its potential economic repercussions [2].

Sources

U.S. economy Scott Bessent