Credit Agricole Wins ECB Approval to Raise Banco BPM Stake Above 20%
Montrouge, Monday, 12 January 2026.
On January 12, 2026, the ECB authorized Credit Agricole to cross the 20% threshold in Banco BPM, allowing the French lender to consolidate its influence without launching a mandatory takeover.
Strategic Settlement and Accounting Shifts
The European Central Bank formally notified Credit Agricole of its decision on January 9, 2026, clearing the path for the French banking group to cross the 20% ownership threshold in Banco BPM [1]. This regulatory approval allows Credit Agricole to physically settle derivative instruments linked to Banco BPM shares—positions it entered into during the third quarter of 2025—effectively adding a 0.3% stake to its holdings [1]. Upon settlement, Credit Agricole will hold 20.1% of the Italian lender’s capital [1]. This transaction marks a pivotal change in financial reporting for the group; starting in the fourth quarter of 2025, the stake is being consolidated under the “significant influence” framework [1]. This accounting treatment shields Credit Agricole’s income statement from the volatility previously caused by fluctuations in Banco BPM’s share price, though it comes with an initial cost [1]. The first-time consolidation will result in a negative accounting impact of approximately €600 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 [1]. However, when factoring in fair value revaluations and dividends, the net income impact for the full year 2025 remains positive by approximately €200 million [1]. Additionally, the consolidation is expected to bolster Credit Agricole’s solvency, adding around 5 basis points to its CET1 ratio [1].
Governance Safeguards and Future Thresholds
While Credit Agricole has explicitly stated it does not intend to exercise control over Banco BPM or trigger a mandatory tender offer, the ECB’s authorization includes specific governance recommendations to preserve this balance [1]. Reports suggest that Frankfurt has advised Credit Agricole to appoint a number of directors proportional to its minority status—likely four or five members on a fifteen-person board—to prevent de facto control over the Milan-based bank [6]. Furthermore, these representatives may be required to abstain from voting on matters where a conflict of interest could arise [6]. Looking ahead, Credit Agricole’s strategy involves navigating a changing regulatory environment in Italy. The bank initially intends to keep its holding below 25% [6]. However, market analysts note that pending amendments to Italy’s Consolidated Law on Finance (Tuf) could raise the takeover threshold to 30% [5][6]. Once such legislation is approved, Credit Agricole is positioned to potentially increase its stake further, up to the maximum limit authorized by the ECB [6].
Market Position and Sector Consolidation
This development reinforces Credit Agricole’s long-term partnership with Banco BPM, which stands as Italy’s third-largest banking group with €103.4 billion in deposits and €125.9 billion in current loans as of the end of 2024 [2]. The market has reacted favorably to the consolidation narrative, with Banco BPM stock rising over two points on January 11, 2026 [5]. This uptick occurs amidst a broader context of potential sector shifts, including the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance’s signaled openness to selling remaining stakes in other institutions like Banca MPS [5]. By cementing its position above 20%, Credit Agricole secures a critical foothold in the Italian market while maintaining the flexibility to adapt to future legislative changes regarding ownership thresholds [1][6].