JPMorgan Upgrades Intel as Chipmaker Gains Momentum with Tesla Deal
New York, Tuesday, 20 October 2026.
JPMorgan raised Intel’s stock rating to neutral, ending a years-long bearish stance. Improving manufacturing, rising artificial intelligence chip demand, and a major manufacturing agreement with Tesla drove the upgrade.
JPMorgan Upgrades Intel as Chipmaker Gains Momentum with Tesla Deal
JPMorgan raised Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) stock rating to neutral, ending a years-long bearish stance [1][2]. Improving manufacturing execution, rising artificial intelligence chip demand, and a major manufacturing agreement with Tesla drove the upgrade [1][3]. The move signals a shift in sentiment for the American semiconductor giant amid a broader recovery in technology stocks [1]. This upgrade reflects growing analyst optimism regarding the company’s turnaround strategy and positioning within the global chip supply chain [1][2].
Analyst Perspective and Market Reaction
JPMorgan analysts upgraded Intel stock from underweight to neutral on 2026-10-18, resulting in a 3.2% stock price increase initially [1]. Shares gained nearly 4% in premarket trading on Monday following the announcement [2]. Analyst Harlan Sur cited a more balanced risk-reward outlook as the stock approached the firm’s $85 price target [2]. Sur noted that since Lip-Bu Tan was appointed chief executive, the group’s execution and competitiveness in its traditional PC and data-center markets have improved significantly [1]. The brokerage maintained a price target of $85 through December 2027 [1][2].
Manufacturing Progress and Tesla Partnership
A key factor in the upgraded outlook is Intel’s forthcoming 14A production process, which Tesla committed to using in April 2026 [2][3]. Intel 14A risk production is scheduled for H2 2027, with high-volume manufacturing ramp-up planned for 2028 [1][3]. The company’s 18A-P process is already in risk-production [1]. Intel’s custom ASIC business is approaching a $2bn annualized revenue run rate, tripling year-over-year [1]. This partnership mitigates the risk that Intel might rethink its advanced foundry plans if sufficient external customer demand failed to materialize [3].
Financial Trajectory and Future Outlook
Intel raised nearly $20bn from investors including the US government, Nvidia, and SoftBank over the last year [1]. Analyst consensus estimates project Intel revenue growth from $52.9 billion in 2025 to $83.5 billion by 2028, representing a 57.845 percent increase [3]. Intel’s capital expenditures have exceeded operating cash flow annually since 2022, with 2025 capex reaching $14.7 billion [3]. JPMorgan forecasts Intel 2028 earnings per share approximately 15% above current consensus, contingent on sustained growth through 2027 driven by agentic AI and CPU-intensive workloads [1][4]. Intel is scheduled to release its third-quarter report on 2026-10-29, which will serve as a key test for additional customer commitments [3].