UBS Raises Alarm with 93% U.S. Recession Probability
New York, Thursday, 23 October 2025.
UBS reports a 93% chance of a U.S. recession due to signals from employment and credit markets, urging vigilance against potential stagflation in 2025 and 2026.
Economic Indicators Point to Potential Recession
UBS has highlighted a startling 93% probability of a U.S. recession, derived from detailed evaluations of employment statistics, industrial production, and credit markets. This alarming figure, based on data collected between May and July 2025, suggests a significant risk of economic stagnation, though a full-blown recession is not explicitly forecasted [1][2].
Stagflation Concerns Loom Large
The possibility of stagflation—a period of slow economic growth coupled with high inflation—has become a central concern for economists. UBS’s report draws parallels to the economic conditions of the 1970s, where sluggish growth coincided with rising prices, and warns that similar conditions could materialize in 2025 and 2026 if current trends persist [1][3].
Key Economic Indicators to Monitor
Critical indicators for assessing the economic outlook include revisions to nonfarm payrolls and inflation readings, which are pending from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These revisions could provide further insights into the trajectory of the U.S. economy and either mitigate or exacerbate current recession fears [2][3].
Policy Implications and Market Reactions
As the U.S. economy navigates through these uncertain waters, policymakers and business leaders are urged to closely monitor developments in employment and industrial activity. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates, will be pivotal in shaping economic outcomes and mitigating the risks of stagflation [3].