IEA Revises Crude Oil Futures Outlook Amid Market Volatility

2025-11-12 economy

Paris, Wednesday, 12 November 2025.
The International Energy Agency updates its crude oil forecast, highlighting potential price fluctuations due to supply-demand shifts, impacting economic stability globally. Insights are expected on November 14, 2025.

Current Market Conditions and Historical Context

As of November 12, 2025, crude oil prices have experienced a notable decline, reflecting broader uncertainties in the market. Brent crude oil prices fell to 63.12 USD per barrel, a decrease of 3.12% from the previous day, while WTI crude oil dropped to 59.1 USD per barrel, marking a fall of over 3% from previous levels [1][2]. This decline follows three consecutive days of gains, underscoring the volatility that characterizes the current oil market landscape. Over the past year, Brent’s price has decreased by 12.67%, and WTI has similarly seen significant downward pressure [2].

Supply-Demand Dynamics and Future Projections

The recent adjustments by OPEC, which now project a supply surplus of approximately 500,000 barrels per day for the third quarter, are pivotal in understanding these price movements [1]. This surplus is largely attributed to increased US production and higher OPEC output, which have reversed earlier forecasts of a deficit [1]. The International Energy Agency’s updated outlook, expected on November 14, 2025, will likely delve into these supply-demand dynamics, with implications for future price stability [1].

Geopolitical and Economic Implications

The broader economic implications of these developments are significant. Oil prices are a crucial factor in global economic stability, influencing everything from inflation to currency exchange rates [GPT]. The ongoing US sanctions on Russian oil firms, coupled with geopolitical tensions, continue to shape the energy landscape. For instance, sanctions have forced Lukoil to declare force majeure at an Iraqi field, illustrating the complex interplay between politics and oil supply [1][2].

Outlook and Strategic Considerations

Looking ahead, crude oil is expected to trade at approximately 60.66 USD per barrel by the end of this quarter, with projections indicating a possible rise to 66.16 USD per barrel over the next year [1][2]. These forecasts underscore the need for investors and policymakers to remain vigilant, as the interplay of production adjustments, geopolitical factors, and demand forecasts will continue to drive market dynamics. The forthcoming IEA report will be instrumental in shaping strategic decisions in the energy sector [1].

Sources

crude oil futures outlook