American Electric Power Doubles 2030 Load Forecast After Beating 2025 Earnings Estimates
Columbus, Friday, 13 February 2026.
American Electric Power exceeded fourth-quarter earnings expectations while doubling its 2030 incremental load forecast to 56 gigawatts. This unprecedented demand surge signals significant infrastructure investment opportunities beyond the utility’s current capital plan.
Financial Performance and Market Reaction
On February 12, 2026, American Electric Power (AEP) reported fourth-quarter operating earnings of $1.19 per share, surpassing analyst estimates which ranged from $1.14 to $1.16 [2][4]. While this represents a decrease from the $1.24 per share reported in the same period of 2024, the company’s full-year performance demonstrated robust growth [3]. Full-year 2025 operating earnings reached $5.97 per share, marking an increase of 6.228% from the $5.62 per share recorded in 2024 [2][5]. Revenue for the quarter also exceeded expectations, coming in at $5.31 billion against a consensus estimate of $4.99 billion [2]. Following the release of these results, AEP shares traded up to $127.78 [5].
Unprecedented Load Growth
The most significant development in the utility’s report is the dramatic revision of its load forecast. AEP now projects 56 gigawatts (GW) of incremental load by 2030, a figure that has doubled from the 28 GW forecast provided just months earlier in October 2025 [1]. This growth is heavily supported by signed agreements, providing a substantial layer of certainty to the projections [1]. The surge in demand is already evident in the company’s operational metrics; retail electric sales in the Transmission & Distribution Utilities segment rose 18.3% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, driven by a remarkable 39.6% jump in commercial sales [2]. Similarly, the Vertically Integrated Utilities segment saw commercial sales rise by 14.7% [2].
Capital Investment and Future Outlook
To accommodate this rapid expansion, AEP is executing a $72 billion capital investment plan spanning from 2026 through 2030 [1]. However, the newly identified load requirements have created opportunities for an additional $5 billion to $8 billion in incremental investment beyond this five-year plan [1]. Looking ahead, management reaffirmed its 2026 operating earnings guidance of $6.15 to $6.45 per share, alongside a long-term operating earnings growth target of 7% to 9% [1]. AEP Chairman and CEO Bill Fehrman emphasized the company’s strategic advantage, stating that AEP possesses the “scale and discipline to execute large-scale infrastructure projects needed to meet unprecedented customer demand” [2].