Why the Government Cannot Publish an Annual Inflation Rate for October

2026-11-10 economy

Washington, Tuesday, 10 November 2026.
Due to a 2025 government shutdown, the BLS will omit annual inflation rates, yet cooling monthly data still keeps odds above 80% for a December Fed interest rate hike.

Government Shutdown’s Lasting Impact on Inflation Data

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not publish annual inflation rates for October 2026 due to a government shutdown in October 2025 that disrupted the collection of October 2025 data, marking the second consecutive month without year-over-year CPI comparisons. This disruption stems from a lapse in federal funding that forced the agency to suspend critical data collection activities for a 35-day period beginning October 1, 2025 [1][2][3][4][7]. The absence of these annual figures creates a statistical blind spot, preventing economists and policymakers from measuring inflation’s year-over-year trajectory through direct comparison. Steven Reed, a BLS spokesperson, noted that the agency is working to reconstruct missing data points, but the process requires additional time to ensure accuracy [5].

Market Expectations Hinge on Monthly Data

Despite the missing annual inflation figures, economists project that October’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) will show a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the headline reading and a 0.2% rise in core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components. These projections, based on Bloomberg’s consensus survey, reflect a moderation from September’s 0.6% monthly gain for the headline index [2][3][5][6]. The projected cooling in monthly inflation appears supported by a 5% decline in gasoline prices during October, as reported by the Energy Information Administration [1]. Bank of America’s October estimate suggested annual headline inflation of 3.8% and core inflation of 2.7%, both marginally higher than September’s readings [2][3].

Federal Reserve’s Decision Looms Large

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming December 8-9 policy meeting will rely heavily on October’s CPI report as its final inflation reading before the decision. Market-implied probabilities indicate an 83% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike based on CME FedWatch data, reflecting the continued pressure from persistent inflationary pressures despite cooling monthly trends [1][2][3][6]. Federal Reserve officials, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, have expressed concern about inflation spreading beyond traditional drivers like oil prices and tariffs, particularly into services sectors affected by artificial intelligence-related infrastructure build-outs [1]. Goolsbee warned that inflation has proven more persistent than anticipated, with services inflation now emerging as a primary concern [1].

Broader Economic Implications of Data Gaps

The missing annual inflation data creates challenges for economic analysis, particularly in assessing the effectiveness of Federal Reserve policy over the past year. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker estimates third-quarter 2026 economic growth at 3.4%, with fourth-quarter growth tracking at 3.5%, while nonfarm payrolls expanded by 165,000 in October with the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% [2][3]. These strong economic indicators suggest underlying demand pressures that could sustain inflationary trends. RBC Economics noted the impossibility of calculating year-over-year changes due to missing October 2025 data, highlighting how the government shutdown has created a statistical void that complicates policy decisions [4]. Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau emphasized that absent an unexpectedly soft monthly reading, the Fed would likely proceed with a December rate hike [2][6].

Sources

inflation Consumer Price Index