Global Spending on Artificial Intelligence Is Expected to Top One Trillion Dollars in 2026
New York, Saturday, 15 August 2026.
Driven by massive infrastructure buildouts, global artificial intelligence spending will exceed $1 trillion in 2026, with the United States capturing over half of these historic capital investments.
Unpacking the Trillion-Dollar Forecast
Goldman Sachs Research projects that global capital expenditure on artificial intelligence will exceed $1 trillion in 2026, marking a historic peak in technology investment [1]. This forecast adjusts traditional spending metrics from major U.S. hyperscale technology firms to develop a comprehensive global scope that accounts for widespread corporate and infrastructure adoption [1]. The investment bank’s methodology includes U.S. hyperscaler capex minus the 2022 baseline, capex from non-U.S. AI-exposed companies, and capex from key private companies, while excluding financial leases to prevent double-counting [1]. This aggressive scale of corporate capital reallocation signals significant long-term macroeconomic impacts for technological productivity and enterprise strategy [1].
Macroeconomic Implications and GDP Share
The economic footprint of this spending is substantial, with AI capital expenditure as a share of U.S. GDP projected to rise from 1.8% in 2026 to 2.8% in 2028 [2]. This trajectory represents a 1 percentage point increase over the two-year period, aligning with the 2% to 5% of GDP peak investment impulses observed in prior general-purpose technology buildouts [1]. Global AI investment as a share of GDP is similarly projected to rise from 0.9% in 2026 to 1.4% in 2028, reshaping productivity for a generation [1]. The indirect benefits of this spending are expected to reach construction, energy, manufacturing, and local tax bases, functioning as real economic fuel rather than just a stock market story [2].
Financing the Infrastructure Boom
To support this massive buildout, Goldman Sachs is currently negotiating with potential investors to participate in Nvidia’s $500 billion AI infrastructure financing initiative [3]. On August 10, 2026, Nvidia announced a partnership with six financial institutions—including Goldman Sachs, Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, and KKR—to establish independent compute platforms aimed at mobilizing over $500 billion in third-party capital [3]. This initiative leverages Goldman Sachs’ long-standing relationship with Nvidia to raise third-party capital for AI infrastructure as global demand for data centers and computing capacity surges [4]. The partnerships remain subject to the execution of final agreements, with status pending finalization as of mid-August 2026 [3].
Market Risks and Future Outlook
Despite the optimistic outlook, the physical layer of AI data centers presents a policy question at the state and local level [2]. As more states consider moratoriums on data center development, there is a risk of exporting the very investment that is currently choosing the U.S., as capital is mobile [2]. If regulatory hurdles make it harder to build domestically, the balance could shift elsewhere, turning what is now a tailwind for GDP and jobs into a self-inflicted headwind [2]. The infrastructure debate requires rigor on transparency, grid capacity, water usage, and community impact to ensure responsible development [2].