Analysis Reveals US Economic Dependence on AI Vulnerable to EU Law
Brussels, Wednesday, 17 December 2025.
With AI investment accounting for 92% of US GDP growth in early 2025, Brussels could leverage regulatory power to burst the bubble sustaining the American economy.
The Fragility of the AI Boom
The structural integrity of the current American economic expansion is under intense scrutiny following revelations regarding its lopsided dependence on artificial intelligence. Data indicates that in the first half of 2025, AI investment was responsible for 92% of United States GDP growth [1]. This statistic highlights a critical vulnerability: without the contributions of the AI sector, the US economy would have expanded by a negligible 0.1% during that period [1]. Analysts argue that President Trump’s political survival is now inextricably linked to maintaining this ‘AI bubble,’ creating a scenario where external regulatory shocks could have outsized domestic consequences [1][4].
The Brussels Chokehold
The European Union possesses distinct leverage points that could disrupt the US tech sector’s momentum. A primary instrument of this influence is the Dutch company ASML, which holds a global monopoly on the microchip-etching machines essential for manufacturers like Nvidia to produce advanced AI hardware [1]. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, faces calls to utilize this bottleneck by restricting exports, a move that would effectively sever the supply chain powering the American AI boom [1]. Furthermore, the EU is positioned to enforce stringent data rules against major US entities; for instance, Meta has reportedly been unable to explain to US courts exactly how it handles user data, leaving it exposed to European regulatory action that could bar it from the market [1].
Diplomatic Crossfire
The regulatory conflict has rapidly evolved into a broader diplomatic spat, with rhetoric sharpening on both sides of the Atlantic. Following the fine levied against X, US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau stated on December 6, 2025, that EU regulation “undermines” NATO ties and damages Europe’s credibility in Washington [5]. President Trump escalated these sentiments on December 9, publicly disparaging European leaders as “weak” and questioning their commitment to defending democracy [1]. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has officially adopted a national security strategy aimed at cultivating resistance within European nations to counter the EU’s current regulatory trajectory [1].