Atlanta Fed Adjusts Q4 2024 GDPNow Estimate to 2.4%
Atlanta, Friday, 3 January 2025.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates a 2.4% growth for Q4 2024, down from 2.6% on January 2, following new manufacturing data.
Latest Economic Indicators Impact Growth Projections
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s latest GDPNow estimate reflects a moderation in economic growth expectations. Following this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report, the model shows a decrease in fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.2% to 3.0%, while real gross private domestic investment growth declined from -0.7% to -0.9% [1]. This adjustment comes as part of the Atlanta Fed’s ongoing effort to provide real-time GDP tracking, though it’s important to note that these figures do not represent official Federal Reserve forecasts [2].
Historical Context and Quarterly Trends
The current estimate represents a notable shift from earlier projections in the quarter. The model reached its peak at 3.4% on December 11, 2024 [1]. For context, the third quarter of 2024 recorded a growth rate of 3.1% on an annualized basis [1]. The latest estimate follows a pattern of fluctuating projections throughout Q4 2024, which included estimates of 2.7% on October 31 and 3.1% on December 20 [2].
Key Economic Indicators Driving the Forecast
The revision is based on several critical economic indicators released in recent weeks. Construction spending data released on January 2, 2025, showed a 2.6% growth rate [2], while the ISM Manufacturing Index released on January 3, 2025, came in at 2.4% [2]. These indicators, combined with other economic data points, contribute to the GDPNow model’s mathematical approach to forecasting GDP growth [2].
Looking Ahead
Market participants and economists will be watching for the next GDPNow update scheduled for Tuesday, January 7, 2025 [1]. While the current estimate shows a moderation in growth expectations, it still indicates continued economic expansion, albeit at a more modest pace than earlier projections suggested [1]. The evolution of these estimates provides valuable insights into the economy’s trajectory as we move into 2025 [GPT].