Carney Launches Bold Defense Strategy to Counter Volatility in US Trade Relations

2026-02-21 global

Ottawa, Sunday, 22 February 2026.
Canada’s first Prime Minister without prior elected service secures 67% public support for a $6.6 billion pivot aimed at reducing economic and military dependence on the United States.

A Historic Mandate for Structural Change

Mark Carney has assumed the office of Prime Minister with a distinct historical profile, becoming the first leader in Canada’s history to take the role without prior elected service [2]. His mandate appears robust; Carney won the leadership race with 85.9% of the vote, a margin that is 7.9 percentage points higher than the 78% Justin Trudeau secured in 2013 [2]. This political capital is being immediately deployed to address what Carney describes as “vulnerabilities we can no longer afford,” specifically referencing Canada’s military and economic reliance on the United States [1]. The Prime Minister has framed this pivot as a necessary response to the volatility introduced by the Trump administration, explicitly acknowledging that Canada has “relied too heavily on our geography and others to protect us” [1].

Mobilizing Capital for Sovereign Defense

The administration’s rhetoric has materialized into policy with the launch of Canada’s first Defence Industrial Strategy on February 17, 2026 [3]. To support this initiative, the federal government has earmarked $6.6 billion over five years in the fall budget [8]. The strategy is aggressive in its domestic focus, aiming to award 70% of federal defense contracts to Canadian firms within 10 years [5]. This “build, partner, buy” approach prioritizes domestic manufacturing before looking abroad, a significant shift for a nation that has historically operated as a branch plant economy for military capabilities [5]. While former NATO officials have expressed skepticism about ending this branch plant status, the government frames the move as a method to reinforce strategic autonomy while creating local prosperity [3][5].

Navigating Friction with Washington

This push for autonomy arrives during a period of heightened protectionism in Washington. On February 6, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order prioritizing U.S. weapons for countries with higher defense spending, viewing foreign industrial ramp-ups as potential economic threats [5]. Just days before Canada unveiled its strategy, the U.S. warned European allies against “buy European” clauses, threatening retaliation if American defense companies were excluded [5]. Prime Minister Carney has attempted to preempt similar friction by characterizing Canada’s growth as “complementary to American supply” rather than competitive [5]. However, the divergence in policy is clear, as Carney seeks to insulate the Canadian economy from the unpredictability of U.S. trade tariffs [1][6].

Domestic Approval and Political Realignment

Despite the geopolitical risks, the Prime Minister’s economic nationalism has resonated with the electorate. A poll published on February 20, 2026, indicates that 67% of Canadians support Carney’s efforts to transition the economy away from the impact of Trump’s tariffs [6]. Surprisingly, this support extends into provinces that typically oppose the Liberal party; 66% of Albertans and 60% of residents in Saskatchewan and Manitoba agree with the Prime Minister’s approach [6]. This broad approval is reshaping the political landscape in Ottawa. On February 18, 2026, Alberta MP Matt Jeneroux crossed the floor to join the Liberal caucus, citing Carney’s economic agenda and recent address at the World Economic Forum as key factors in his decision [4]. Jeneroux is the third MP to join the Liberals in less than a year, following Michael Ma and Chris d’Entremont [4].

Diversifying Global Partnerships

Beyond strengthening domestic capacity, the government is actively seeking to diversify its international alliances. Prime Minister Carney has expressed a desire to expand frameworks for economic partnerships beyond the United States [7]. In line with this, India’s envoy to Ottawa stated on February 20, 2026, that Canada could sign a comprehensive trade deal with New Delhi “within a year” [7]. This potential agreement would mark a significant breakthrough, as trade talks between the two nations have stalled multiple times since their inception in 2010 [7]. Coupled with the 70% of Canadians who express pride in Carney’s representation of Canada on the world stage, the administration appears poised to aggressively pursue a more independent foreign policy [6].

Sources

Geopolitics International Trade