Progressive Surge Tightens New Jersey Primary as Mejia Challenges Malinowski

2026-02-06 politics

Trenton, Friday, 6 February 2026.
Decision Desk HQ retracted its call for former Rep. Malinowski as progressive Analilia Mejia surged to a narrow lead, signaling a fierce ideological battle for New Jersey’s vacant House seat.

A Dramatic Reversal on Election Night

The Democratic primary for New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District has evolved into a nail-biter following the February 5 election, characterized by a stunning reversal in vote tabulations. While early returns dominated by mail-in ballots favored former Representative Tom Malinowski, in-person voting trends shifted the momentum significantly as the night progressed [1][5]. Decision Desk HQ initially projected a Malinowski victory at 8:50 p.m. ET but was forced to retract the call shortly after 10 p.m. ET as progressive activist Analilia Mejia surged ahead [5]. Data analysis revealed that margins in Morris County tilted sharply toward Mejia, who began winning ballot drops by 20% to 30%, a swing of 65 points compared to the absentee vote [5].

A Razor-Thin Margin

As of Friday morning, the race remains too close to call with over 95% of the vote counted [5]. Mejia holds a precarious lead of 486 votes over Malinowski, with 17,647 ballots cast in her favor compared to his 17,161 [6]. This narrow gap has turned attention to the remaining provisional ballots and the “cure” process for mail-in votes, which Malinowski’s campaign has signaled it will pursue aggressively [2][6]. Mejia’s campaign manager, Kaylie Haberstroh, acknowledged the difficulty of the journey but expressed confidence in the team’s ability to navigate the upcoming ballot curing phase [6].

Ideological Fault Lines

The contest highlights a deepening fracture between the Democratic Party’s establishment and its progressive wing. Mejia, a former political director for Senator Bernie Sanders and deputy director in the Biden Labor Department, campaigned on a platform addressing economic inequality, asserting that the “economy is rigged to suit the billionaires” [1][2]. Her candidacy was bolstered by high-profile endorsements from Senator Sanders, Senator Elizabeth Warren, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, signaling a robust effort by progressives to reclaim influence in the House [3][5]. Conversely, Malinowski, who represented the 7th District for two terms before losing his seat in 2022 due to redistricting, ran as a seasoned legislator backed by New Jersey Senator Andy Kim [1][3].

The Road to April

The victor of this primary will advance to the special general election scheduled for April 16, 2026, to face Republican Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway, who ran unopposed in his party’s primary [1][2]. The 11th District, which encompasses parts of Essex, Morris, and Passaic counties, is considered Democratic-leaning, making the primary winner the favorite to secure the seat [1][4]. The special election was triggered by the resignation of Mikie Sherrill, who vacated the seat in November 2025 after being elected governor of New Jersey [3][6]. Whoever prevails in April will serve the remainder of Sherrill’s term, which concludes in January 2027, and will likely face another primary in June for the full two-year term [1][2].

Sources

Democratic Primary New Jersey