Wall Street Bank Projects Bitcoin Price Downturn Will Bottom Out by October

Wall Street Bank Projects Bitcoin Price Downturn Will Bottom Out by October

2026-07-01 economy

New York, Thursday, 2 July 2026.
Cantor Fitzgerald reports Bitcoin’s 51% decline aligns with historical 384-day cycles, projecting a final market bottom this October before a recovery phase begins.

Historical Cycles and the Road to October 2026

In a strategic report released on June 30, 2026 [7], Wall Street investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald announced that the cryptocurrency market has entered the final stage of its current downcycle [3], with reports also shared by Bitcoin Magazine confirming that Bitcoin is nearing the end of its bear market phase [8]. According to Gareth Gacetta, the lead of Cantor Fitzgerald’s research team, the market is likely only a few months away from the bottom of this pullback [5]. The bank’s analysis indicates that as of June 10, 2026, Bitcoin had experienced 252 days of continuous correction since its late-2025 peak [5][6][7] and was down approximately 51% in value [1][6]. Historically, across previous market cycles, Bitcoin has taken an average of 384 days from its peak to reach a market bottom [2][7]. This implies that, as of June 10, 2026, the market was approximately 132 days away from its historical average bottoming timeframe, pointing to a potential market bottom in late October 2026 [2][3][6][7].

The prolonged contraction in the digital asset market has been shaped by broader economic factors. Bitcoin fell more than 50% from its late-2025 peak following a sharp selloff in June 2026 [2]. This decline was driven by a combination of persistent exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows, elevated interest rates, and a general reduction in risk appetite among investors [1][2][5]. Around the time of the report’s publication, Bitcoin was trading near $59,500 [2], while as of June 30, 2026, it was priced at $60,056 [5]. Despite these immediate macroeconomic headwinds, Cantor Fitzgerald’s analysts caution that while their cyclical model is a helpful guide, it is not a precise timing tool due to ongoing macroeconomic, regulatory, and geopolitical risks [2]. However, because of the highly reflexive nature of crypto markets, these historical cycles can often become self-reinforcing [2].

The Shift to Durable Value Accrual

With a potential market inflection point on the horizon, Cantor Fitzgerald advises investors to shift their attention away from speculative trading and focus instead on networks that demonstrate durable value accrual [1][2][4]. The firm argues that high transaction usage alone does not guarantee long-term token value [2]. Instead, the long-term winners will be networks that can successfully convert ecosystem activity into sustainable cash flow or structural monetary demand [2][7]. In this evolving landscape, Cantor Fitzgerald designates Bitcoin as the benchmark monetary asset [1][2] and Ethereum as the primary collateral layer for onchain decentralized finance (DeFi) [1][5]. Other major networks, such as Solana, Sui, XRP, and Zcash, are showing ecosystem growth but must still prove their ability to convert that activity into long-term token demand [1][3].

The Evolution of Crypto Treasuries and Infrastructure

An emerging theme highlighted in the report is the evolution of digital asset treasury companies. Cantor Fitzgerald notes that the strongest of these firms are transitioning from passive holding strategies to active operators [1][2]. These active treasury companies are engaging in yield generation, infrastructure development, and providing institutional access, thereby bridging the gap between traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem [1][4]. As part of this theme, Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage on two digital asset treasury companies: Forward Industries (FWDI) with a price target of $7.90, and Cypherpunk Technologies (CYPH) with a price target of $0.90 [1]. This transition suggests a broader shift toward the institutionalization of the crypto market by autumn 2026, assuming the projected market bottom is confirmed [7].

Sources


Bitcoin Market cycles