Africa Set to Add Record Solar Power Driven by Uncounted Rooftop Panels
Nairobi, Wednesday, 2 September 2026.
Africa will install a record 17 gigawatts of solar power in 2026, driven by rooftop systems that official statistics largely miss, outpacing historic electricity demand growth across the continent.
Dominance of Distributed Energy Systems
The projected 17 gigawatts of solar capacity represents a 45% increase year-on-year, signaling a rapid acceleration in renewable adoption across the continent [1][2]. Crucially, approximately three-quarters of this new capacity consists of distributed solar systems, including commercial, industrial, and residential rooftop setups [1]. These decentralized installations often remain unaccounted for in official government statistics, creating a significant blind spot for policymakers [3]. This off-grid boom indicates a structural shift bypassing traditional centralized utilities, creating commercial opportunities for distributed energy companies and equipment suppliers [1].
Discrepancies in Official Data
Significant discrepancies exist between independent estimates and official international statistics due to poor national reporting mechanisms [1]. Ember estimated 12.0 gigawatts of solar growth in 2025, which is significantly higher than the 6.2 gigawatts estimated by the International Energy Agency and 4.6 gigawatts by the International Renewable Energy Agency [1]. Only 36 of 54 African countries have publicly reported national solar capacity, and merely three provide monthly or quarterly data [1]. Dave Jones, Chief Analyst at Ember, noted that while solar panel economics are compelling, much of the growth remains hidden from view, necessitating better data gathering by national governments [2].
Regional Shifts in Solar Leadership
South Africa’s dominance in solar installations is declining, with its share of African installations expected to drop below 20% for the first time since 2019 [1]. High growth rates are now observed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo at 544%, Zimbabwe at 282%, Egypt at 176%, and Zambia at 117% [1]. In ten countries, including Sierra Leone and Togo, new 2026 solar installations will add more than 10% to annual grid electricity generation [4]. This expansion means solar generation from 2026 installations alone can meet the continent’s historic electricity demand growth [5].
Generation Capacity and Manufacturing Outlook
The 17 gigawatts of new solar installed in 2026 is projected to generate 23 terawatt-hours annually, representing 2.3% of Africa’s total electricity generation [1]. This output exceeds the 2.2% average annual electricity demand growth rate observed from 2014 to 2024 by a margin of 0.1 percentage points [1]. While African solar panel manufacturing output is projected to quadruple to approximately 3.5 gigawatts in 2026, 94% of panels currently installed remain imported from China [2]. Joel Nana of the African Tech Futures Lab described the transition as chaotic and disruptive, diverging from the orderly model planned in national strategies [2].