Geopolitical Tensions Rise as US Analyst Backs Moroccan Claims Over Spanish Enclaves
Ceuta, Tuesday, 17 March 2026.
A US analyst urges Morocco to peacefully reclaim Ceuta and Melilla, highlighting an intriguing legal loophole: NATO treaties would not require a defense response for these African territories.
A Call to Reclaim Colonial Outposts
In March 2026, Michael Rubin, a former U.S. Department of Defense official and current senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), published a provocative report urging the United States to recognize the Spanish-held enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla as occupied Moroccan territory [1][2][3][4]. These coastal cities, which cover a combined area of 18 square kilometers, have been under European control for centuries; Ceuta was captured by Portugal in 1415 before passing to Spain, while Melilla fell to Spanish forces in 1497 [3][4]. Despite Spain withdrawing from the vast majority of its Moroccan territories following the North African nation’s independence in 1956, Madrid retained control of these two outposts, which are currently home to approximately 170,000 Spanish settlers [1][2][4].
The NATO Loophole and European Security
The geopolitical shockwave of such a maneuver would typically trigger international military intervention, but Rubin highlights a critical legal caveat: the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) would not be obligated to defend Spain [1][2][4]. According to Article 6 of NATO’s foundational treaty, the collective defense guarantee outlined in Article 5 only applies to armed attacks on territories in Europe, North America, or island jurisdictions north of the Tropic of Cancer [1][2][4]. Because Ceuta and Melilla are located on the African continent, an incursion would not automatically trigger a NATO response—just as an attack on Hawaii or Puerto Rico would fall outside the alliance’s strict geographic mandate [2][4].
Diplomatic Hypocrisy and Shifting Alliances
Rubin’s proposal also serves as a sharp critique of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, whose foreign policy stances have increasingly alienated traditional allies [3][5]. The AEI scholar points out a perceived hypocrisy in Sánchez’s administration, which has vehemently condemned Israeli actions in the Middle East while fiercely maintaining its own colonial presence in Africa [3][5]. This diplomatic friction reached new heights in early 2026; on March 11, Spain dismissed its ambassador in Tel Aviv and downgraded its diplomatic representation in Israel, following months of embargoes and canceled defense contracts valued at over 1.2 billion euros [5].