Rising Economic Pessimism Drives Sharp Decline in Trump Administration Approval Ratings
Washington D.C., Thursday, 1 January 2026.
As inflation drives President Trump’s net approval down 18 points among independents, Vice President J.D. Vance defies the trend, polling at historic highs for a 2028 succession bid.
Economic Anxiety Deepens as 2026 Begins
As the United States enters 2026, public sentiment regarding the national economy has deteriorated significantly, presenting a formidable obstacle for the Trump administration. CNN Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten reports that polling metrics are currently moving in the “complete wrong direction,” driven largely by persistent inflation [3]. Since President Trump’s return to the White House, the percentage of Americans who believe the economy is on the “wrong track” has surged from 43% to 56% as of late December 2025 [3]. Conversely, those viewing the economic trajectory favorably have declined from 36% to 29%, resulting in a negative spread of 27 points [3]. Enten emphasizes that inflation remains the “numero uno” factor fueling this pessimism, warning that economic sentiment is unlikely to rebound until the electorate perceives price stability [3].
Independent Voters Drive Approval Collapse
The erosion of political capital is most acute among independent voters, a demographic essential to the Republican coalition. Data analysis reveals a dramatic shift in President Trump’s net approval rating among independents, which collapsed from -1 in January 2025 to -43 by December 2025 [2][4]. This 42-point drop among swing voters has been the primary catalyst for the President’s overall approval rating decline, which fell from a net of +6 at the start of his term to -12 at the close of 2025—a total downward shift of 18 points over the course of the year [2][4]. Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, notes that when affordability is a central concern, the blame is inevitably “laid at the doorstep of a chief executive” [4]. Furthermore, a Gallup poll released on December 23, 2025, placed the President’s overall approval at just 36%, tying his lowest rating recorded in December 2017 [4].
Vance Secures Historic Early Support
In stark contrast to the President’s struggles, Vice President J.D. Vance is consolidating unprecedented support for a potential succession bid in 2028. According to a University of New Hampshire Granite State poll from October 2025, Vance is the top choice for 51% of likely Republican voters in the state’s primary [1]. Harry Enten characterizes this lead as “historic,” pointing out that Vance is the only non-sitting Republican president since 1980 to surpass the 50% threshold in early New Hampshire polling [1]. He holds a commanding lead over potential challengers, with former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley polling at 9% and National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard at 8% [1]. Enten likens Vance’s dominance in the field to racing legend Mario Andretti competing against go-kart drivers, suggesting he is the “far and away favorite” for the nomination [1].
The 2026 Midterm Landscape
Despite favorable projections for 2028, the administration faces immediate hurdles in the 2026 midterm elections. In an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity in December 2025, Vice President Vance stated his intention to focus on the midterms before officially considering a presidential run [1]. However, the political environment remains volatile; while the President’s approval is underwater, Democrats have struggled to capitalize on these vulnerabilities. Polling data from September 2025 indicated that Republicans maintained a trust advantage over Democrats on key issues, leading by 7 percentage points on the economy and 13 points on immigration [5]. As the nation moves toward what some analysts call the “most important [midterms] of our lifetimes,” the administration must navigate waning support for foreign aid to Ukraine and the lingering domestic pressure of the 2025 inflation surge [6].